The first Friday of the New Year is a busy day of basketball. Nine games are scheduled across the night on the NBA slate.
The NBA season has fully hit its stride with the seedings beginning to become clear and the trade rumors heating. Jimmy Butler has poured some gasoline on this fire by making his desire to leave the Miami Heat clear last night. Regardless, the season will continue on the floor.
Tonight will begin with a matchup between the Detroit Pistons and Charlotte Hornets as the lone game tipping off at 7:00 p.m. ET. More notably, the Boston Celtics will be on the second night of a back-to-back and are facing off with the Houston Rockets while the New York Knicks take on the Oklahoma City Thunder in the 8:00 p.m. window. The Cleveland Cavaliers will also be facing the Dallas Mavericks, the San Antonio Spurs are playing the Denver Nuggets, and the Sacramento Kings are hosting the Memphis Grizzlies. In the final matchup of the night, the Los Angeles Lakers will host the Atlanta Hawks on the second night of the back-to-back with Anthony Davis having missed last night.
Here are my favorite prop bets on the Friday night slate.
Jakob Poeltl Under 22.5 Points & Rebounds (-110)
The Toronto Raptors will host the Orlando Magic tonight and are inching back to full strength. Immanuel Quickley returned from a 22-game absence on Wednesday with 21 points and 15 assists and will be back on the floor tonight. R.J. Barrett has been downgraded to doubtful after missing the previous two games with an illness and his status will be one to monitor.
While the Raptors are still early in their rebuild, Jakob Poeltl has been a significant point of optimism this year. The veteran big man is averaging a career-high 15.0 points and 10.9 rebounds per game across his 31.9 minutes per game. However, his level of opportunity has been more limited in recent games. Poeltl played just 21:45 of game action against the Chicago Bulls four games ago and has played less than 30 minutes in four of his last five games. This occurred just six times across the first 25 games.
Even if he does see his typical level of opportunity, this is a difficult matchup for Poeltl. The Orlando Magic allow the second-fewest points per game and lead the NBA in opponents’ rebounds per game this season. They also are coming off a month of December in which they led the NBA by a notable margin in opponents’ rebounds per game by allowing an average of just 38. For reference, their league-leading opponent’s rebounds on the season sit at 40.5 per game. The Raptors big man has recorded under 22.5 combined points and rebounds in six consecutive games leading into this matchup. With a tough opponent and his level of opportunity shrinking, expect this trend to continue and for Poeltl to be held under 22.5 combined points and rebounds tonight.
Alex Sarr Over 19.5 Points & Rebounds (-105)
There has not been much buzz surrounding Alex Sarr after he was selected with the second overall pick in this year’s NBA Draft. Sarr is beginning to put it together at the NBA level with his offensive game taking some significant leaps in recent games. The Frenchman is averaging 11.6 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 2.2 assists across his 27.2 minutes per game on the season. But Sarr saw his scoring average grow to 13.8 points per game in December. He has scored double-digit points in ten consecutive games and also made multiple three-pointers in seven of his last eight games.
Washington is set to face off with the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. Injuries have been the story of the season for the Pelicans. They enter this matchup with a 5-29 record, ranking 28th in scoring, 25th in rebounds, 25th in opponents points per game, and 27th in opponents rebounds per game. Neither of these teams will find themselves in the playoff mix and this has the potential to lead to some sloppy basketball.
This should play into Sarr’s favor as he is at his best when leaning on his athleticism and size as his means to scoring. He is an excellent weapon in transition and should see plenty of opportunity to run the fast break tonight. Things seem to be clicking in Sarr’s head in recent games and this is the type of matchup he can exploit. He has recorded over 19.5 points and rebounds in back-to-back games leading into this and ten times this season. Look for him to build off his recent success and record over 19.5 combined points and rebounds for the third consecutive game.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 30.5 Points (-110)
Perhaps the best matchup on tonight’s NBA slate will take place between the Oklahoma City Thunder and New York Knicks. The Thunder enter this game on a 13-game winning streak and have looked to be every bit the caliber of title contenders they desire to be. They now will host the New York Knicks who are shaping into the team they desire to be following the trade for Karl-Anthony Towns shortly before the season.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is at the heart of the success of the Thunder and has rightfully played himself into the MVP race. The 26-year-old is averaging 31.2 points, 6.1 assists, and 5.5 rebounds per game. He also is getting the job done on the defensive end adding 2.0 steals and 1.1 blocks per game.
The Knicks are a tough, scrappy team but Gilgeous-Alexander will continue calling the offensive shots for the Thunder. He has recorded over 30.5 points in eight of the last 11 games and 16 of the 33 on the season. This will be the first matchup of the season with the Knicks, but these bright-light matchups against tough teams tend to be when Gilgeous-Alexander is at his best. Look for him to be in attack mode in this game and record over 30.5 points once again as the Thunder attempt to extend their winning streak to 14 games and tie the franchise record.
Austin Reaves Over 7.5 Assists (-110)
The Los Angeles Lakers made a notable shake-up by trading D’Angelo Russell to the Brooklyn Nets. This has created some more on-ball opportunities for Austin Reaves who is becoming more of an active playmaker in the Lakers offense.
On the season overall, Reaves is averaging a career-high 18.2 points and 5.9 assists. However, he is averaging 11.8 assists per game across his past four games and has recorded 10+ assists in each of these. Reaves made a statement by producing a triple-double on the Christmas Day game and has followed this up with three consecutive strong performances with double-digit assists.
The Lakers will face off with the Atlanta Hawks tonight who rank 27th in assists allowed by giving up 28.6 per game. While they are moving in the right direction defensively, Atlanta can still become disconnected on this side of the floor and Reaves will hold the primary responsibility for making this happen. This is especially the case with Gabe Vincent missing last night’s game and seeming to be unlikely to return tonight. For the sake of the article, we will stick with the over of 7.5 assists, but it also may be worth playing the alternate line of 10+ assists at +200 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook which he has hit four consecutive games leading into tonight’s matchup.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
