The PGA TOUR heads to Maui, Hawaii this week for the first event of 2025, The Sentry. The Plantation Course at Kapalua Resort will be the host, and measures as a 7,596-yard par 73 with Bermuda grass greens.
We have a 60-man, no-cut event on tap this week, with the field consisting of last year’s winners and anyone else inside the FedEx Cup top 50. The only ones who qualified who are not here are Scottie Scheffler (hand surgery), Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry
Below I have outlined my two favorite bets for the week.
Patrick Cantlay to win (+1600)
This is more of a number play than anything, because in a 60-man field it’s a bit jarring that eight-time PGA TOUR winner Patrick Cantlay is the same price as Sungjae Im. No offense to Im, as he’s a two-time winner himself, but when both are at their best, Cantlay is simply in a different league.
Having said that, 2024 was a bit of a down year for Patty Ice, as he posted just four top-10s in 18 starts. He picked it up a bit over the final few events of the season, however, finishing T13 and T12 at both the FedEx St. Jude and BMW Championship, before then finishing T11 (albeit in a 20-man field) at the Hero, where his irons looked great. Oh by the way, despite his subpar campaign, Cantlay still ranked 11th on the PGA TOUR in par-5 scoring in 2024, which ranks him sixth among this field.
Cantlay has played the Sentry six times in his career and has a pair of fourth places finishes to his name. If you believe in his long-term talent as I do, then betting him at 16/1 in a small field that features neither Scottie Scheffler nor Rory McIlroy is the only way to start the new season.
Taylor Pendrith to win (+5000)
If last year taught us anything, it’s that the expansion of this field to include anyone inside the FedEx Cup top 50 will allow long shots to compete. Chris Kirk came out of absolutely nowhere to win this event at 29-under par a year ago, despite not really boasting the prototypical skill set that Kapalua demands.
Pendrith, on the other hand, absolutely has the requisite skillset to compete this week, as he’s both an incredible putter and one of the longest hitters on the PGA TOUR. The Canadian ranks No. 1 in this field in driving distance over the past 24 rounds, while sitting fifth in SG: Putting and second in SG: Ball-Striking during that time frame.
Pendrith finally broke through in 2024, picking up his first career win at the CJ CUP Byron Nelson. He finished at 23-under par in that event, showing how lethal he can be in birdie-making contests. As a matter of fact, Pendrith has now made 21 or more birdies in each of his past three starts, including drilling 25 at both the Shriners Children’s Open and TOUR Championship.
His poor driving accuracy will not hinder him here, as Kapalua boasts some of the widest fairways in the world, and Pendrith should be able to use his length to dominate the four par-5s on the card this week. Getting him at 50/1 in a 60-man field with the way he’s been playing is incredible value.
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