The Lions traveled across the country to take on the 49ers in San Francisco tonight on Monday Night Football. The Lions are 3.5-point road favorites and the game total is set at O/U 50.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. There should be lots of touchdowns in this one but which player will be the first touchdown (TD) scorer? Please read below for a breakdown of my favorite choice for Lions vs. 49ers.
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers
Jahmyr Gibbs First TD Scorer (+390)
Gibbs has full control of the Lions backfield now. He totaled 23 (10 in the first quarter) carries last week against the Bears and should see a similar volume against a poor 49ers run defense. San Francisco has allowed the sixth-most rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs and ranks 28th in rush EPA. Detroit is one of the best running teams in the league and will almost certainly feed Gibbs early and often.
Gibbs also logged 69% of the snaps last week and totaled nine red zone carries. He has totaled 55 red zone touches this season and can take advantage of the 49ers’ poor red zone defense, which ranks 29th in red zone touchdown percentage. Detroit has scored a touchdown on a third of its opening drives and Gibbs has scored the first touchdown in three games this season. It all feels too good to be true––I can’t wait to see which random player spoils it.
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