The 2023 MLB playoffs continue with the start of the Divisional Round on Tuesday. The Wild Card round gave us a couple of road upsets, with the Rangers dominating the fourth-seeded Rays in the AL and the No. 6 Diamondbacks pulling off a shocking sweep of the Brewers in the NL. So the full field for the Divisional Round is set, therefore we’ll be looking at the updated World Series odds.
The board is still dominated by the top seeds from each league, with the Braves, Dodgers and Astros grouped at the top much as they were at the beginning of the playoffs. Three of the four Wild Card winners have made a big leap, with the Rangers going from +1600 to +700, the Phillies going from +1300 to +700 and the Twins going from +1800 to +1000. The D-backs were +3000 long shots before the Wild Card round, and while they’ve sliced into that number considerably, oddsmakers are still pretty skeptical in their ability to make a deep run.
Updated World Series odds entering Divisional round
Atlanta Braves +310 Los Angeles Dodgers +425
Houston Astros +425 Baltimore Orioles +650
Texas Rangers +700 Philadelphia Phillies +700
Minnesota Twins +1000 Arizona Diamondbacks +1400
The Braves and Dodgers are the understandable favorites, given that they boast the two best run differentials in baseball and were the class of the Majors for much of this season. Still, for as imposing as these lineups are, and for as much success as they’ve had, they’re certainly not perfect. Both of them have real rotation questions to answer, partly due to injury: Atlanta has Max Fried and Charlie Morton currently on the IL (though both are expected to return for the Division Series) and not a ton of reliable options beyond those two and Spencer Strider; the Dodgers, meanwhile, have lost Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin for the year and won’t be seeing Julio Urias any time soon after his disturbing domestic violence allegations.
If you’re looking for a better value, the Orioles are the third 100-game winner this season and have as much firepower in their lineup as anyone in the AL. The loss of closer Felix Bautista hurts, and the rotation remains unproven, but Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez and the returning John Means form an underrated trio. Texas looked awfully impressive in their Wild Card win, but I still have lots of questions about the Rangers’ pitching depth. It’s not often you’ll see the team with the second-best record in baseball get the fourth-shortest odds, and Baltimore could make that relative skepticism look very silly.
Want a true dark horse? Why not Minnesota: Absolutely no one is going to want to face Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray and Joe Ryan in a short series, not to mention Bailey Ober and Kenta Maeda plus Jhoan Duran looming in the late innings. Whether the lineup can score enough runs is another matter, but at +1000, this is a team that looks tailor-made to surprise in the postseason — and their ALDS matchup, the Astros, are just 14-13 over their last 27 games.
