The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff is off and running, and we get four awesome games to ring in the New Year. Penn State and Boise State get things going on New Year’s Eve, followed by a triple-header on New Year’s Day. Let’s rip through the best bets on these games.
Penn State vs. Boise State (Vrbo Fiesta Bowl) December 31 at 7:30pm ET
This is a pretty unique game in terms of the Broncos getting the bye, but the Nittany Lions priced as big favorites, coming off a dominant CFP win at home. While Boise is at a clear disadvantage in terms of talent, it still has some pretty solid players across the field, even aside from stud RB Ashton Jeanty. This team ran the table outside of an early season trip to Oregon, and that’s arguably a game the Broncos should’ve won. It took a big comeback from the Ducks, who won by just three points on a walk off field goal. From that perspective, you can talk yourself into Boise hanging with anybody in the country.
However, this is just the Broncos second test against playoff caliber competition, so if that first game was an outlier, Penn State has the horses to win with margin here. While James Franklin and company have a reputation for losing the “big game,” those matchups have always been against top-five level competition. I think we see that come into play more if PSU advances, but I expect Franklin to be prepared for a game like this.
Boise State ranks just 113th nationally in passing yards allowed per game, although it is 14th against the rush. That said, the Broncos allowed an average of over 200 rushing yards per game in their two matchups against UNLV, and Penn State should still be able to run the ball. The Nittany Lions rank top-10 in yards allowed both passing and rushing. If they can take Jeanty out of the game, Boise is going to have a very difficult time.
If you’re coming into this one without any tickets in pocket, I lean to PSU. Personally, I’m in an interesting spot with a Boise State 150-1 ticket to win it all. With such a big payout at the end, I can afford to hedge with a pretty decent PSU ML ticket here, even at a price tag north of -400. I’ll probably just do that, and not play anything official in this game. There’s the chance Boise just caught Oregon off guard early, before the Ducks hit their stride. But I’m very curious to watch this one and see how it plays out.
Lean: Penn State -11 or better
Texas vs. Arizona State (Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl) January 1 at 1:00pm ET
This is another one with the team off a bye priced as a massive underdog. Texas is the elite team here, but Arizona State has risen to the occasion every time we seem to count them out. Texas has been on the winning side of plenty of blowouts here, but they’ve also won without covering as a big favorite on just as many occasions. The market is telling us it expects a pretty similar result to the Clemson game, which was a game the Tigers were at least able to be a threat.
That dominant Texas defense we’ve heard about all season was exposed against Clemson, and the Sun Devils have the firepower to expose it again. The real test will come in the ground game, where Texas ranked top-10 in terms of rushing yards per game allowed, but the number is skewed due to some of the blowout wins. Arizona State was able to run for nearly 200 yards per game this season, behind stud RB Cam Skattebo. If ASU can find success on the ground, it should be able to keep this game within two scores.
I haven’t bet anything on this one yet, but if I get the Sun Devils at +14 or better, I may dive in.
Lean: Arizona State +14 or better
Ohio State vs. Oregon (Prudential Rose Bowl) January 1 at 5:00pm ET
Alright, let’s move onto the big boys. After the Buckeyes completely embarrassed themselves against Michigan, the public ran to the window to bet Tennessee in the first-round playoff matchup. Ohio State dominated the Vols, and now finally gets a rematch with Oregon. I bet this one on the opener right after that game, laying -115 ML with OSU.
I was ready to make this play a few weeks ago on OSU in the Big Ten Championship Game against the Ducks, but obviously, the Michigan dud didn’t give us that matchup. The Buckeyes will have revenge on their minds here, following a one-point loss in Eugene back in October. That was a game Ohio State would’ve at least had a chance at the game-winning kick, had Will Howard slid with a bit more time on the clock.
Oregon is a fantastic team, but perhaps a bit overrated due to their undefeated record. We’ve seen the Ducks play some bad games this season, but still get away with a win. I feel Ohio State is still the better team here, and the market agrees with the Buckeyes growing into a larger favorite. I agree with the market and feel OSU is the right side here.
Play: Ohio State ML (-115) – 2-units – play to -140 ML or -2.5
Notre Dame vs. Georgia (Allstate Sugar Bowl) January 1 at 8:45pm ET
Notre Dame is having a terrific season outside of the inexplicable loss to Northern Illinois, but the Irish also haven’t stepped into the same weight class as Georgia. You can flip this and say that Georgia has had its struggles against good competition, but the Bulldogs played an insane schedule this season, and are well tested. I bet this one on the opener as well, and UGA has since flipped to the favorite.
Carson Beck being out for this game is the storyline, but he really wasn’t having all that great of a season. It was Gunner Stockton that led the comeback victory over Texas in the SEC Championship Game, and I feel he’s equipped to play on this stage. While this is the best ND team we’ve seen in recent years, it’s going to have to deal with an elite Georgia defense that it hasn’t faced often.
The Bulldogs’ schedule sharpened them for this game, and I give the coaching edge to Kirby Smart, who has been in a lot of these big games against quality competition. I’ve had UGA as my champion all along, and have a ticket on them to win it all. I won’t be backing down now.
Play: Georgia +1.5 (-110) – 2-units – play to -140 ML or -2.5
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
