Kicking off at 1:00 PM EST on Saturday, the Los Angeles Chargers will travel to the East Coast to face the New England Patriots.
The Chargers are coming off a victory over the Broncos last week which bumped them up to second place in the AFC West. Both the Chargers and Broncos hold a 9-6 record on the year and are hopeful for finding their way into the playoffs. While the Kansas City Chiefs have already clinched the top seed and the division with their 15-1 record, the Chargers need to win one of their final two games to make their way into the playoffs. They have a great chance to achieve this as they take on the Patriots this week.
New England enters this matchup with a 3-12 record and sits in last place in the AFC East. The focus for the season continues to be on the development of rookie quarterback Drake Maye with the wins and losses not at the top of the priorities for the year. If the season were to end today, the Patriots would receive the second pick in the NFL Draft.
The Chargers enter this game as 4.5-point favorites in the matchup and -230 on the Moneyline. The Patriots are +190 underdogs on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 42.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the Saturday afternoon matchup.
Justin Herbert Over 232.5 Passing Yards (-115)
A victory from the Chargers will officially punch their ticket to the playoffs and expect a focused effort to make this a reality. Justin Herbert has continually grown in his role in the offense from the start of the season. After being limited to 27 or fewer pass attempts and 179 or fewer passing yards across each of the first four weeks, the Chargers have opened up the offense as the season has progressed. He has thrown for over 232.5 passing yards in six of the 11 games since this point.
Herbert will now turn his attention to a struggling Patriots defense. Overall they rank 24th in points allowed and 21st in yards given up. They also are 28th in net yards per pass attempts, 31st in opponent dropback EPA, and 29th in opponent dropback success rate. They have allowed over 232.5 passing yards in six games this season.
Justin Herbert is coming off a 284-yard passing performance last week against the Broncos, who have one of the best secondaries in the NFL. Expect the Chargers to air it out plenty and for Herbert to be given the necessary opportunity to make an impact with his arm. Don’t be shocked if the Chargers lay it on thick and break this open for a blowout and for Herbert to throw for over 232.5 passing yards in the process.
Antonio Gibson Over 30.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Rhamondre Stevenson has held down the primary running back spot for the Patriots this season. However, Antonio Gibson out-snapped Stevenson last week by logging 59% of the offensive snaps. Stevenson fumbled the ball for the seventh time this season last week and also botched a backward pass that led to a Bills touchdown. Head Coach Jerod Mayo hinted to the media that this change may be here to stay and Gibson has a chance to keep the starting running back spot.
Whichever running back receives the most snaps is in a great spot in this matchup. Los Angeles ranks 18th in total rushing yards allowed and ranks 27th in net yards per rush attempt by allowing 4.7 yards per carry this season. 16 different running backs have rushed for over 44 yards against the Chargers this season and both Gibson and Stevenson have a chance to add to this list.
Gibson has rushed for over 30.5 rushing yards in five games this season and the 10 carries he received last week were his third-highest total this season. Whether this is just a tactic to motivate Stevenson or Gibson truly is the primary running back, expect there to be enough opportunity for him to reach 31+ rushing yards. This should especially be the case in the early stages of this game. Expect Gibson to reach 31 rushing yards for the sixth time this season as the Patriots send a clear message on the importance of ball security to Stevenson.
Quentin Johnston Anytime TD (+255)
Quentin Johnston has done an excellent job growing into the red zone threat that the Chargers needed him to be. He leads the team with eight receiving touchdowns which is tied for the ninth-most in the NFL. Despite this, Ladd McConkey holds the best odds of a receiving touchdown at +140 and Josh Palmer is tied with Johnston with +255 odds as well. McConkey has logged five touchdowns this season while Palmer has just one touchdown catch.
On top of this, the Patriots rank 18th in passing touchdowns allowed this season giving up an average of 1.5 passing touchdowns per week. New England also ranks 28th in net yards per pass attempt. Especially with the injury issues in the Chargers’ backfield, expect Los Angeles to lean on their passing game more.
Johnston has reached the end zone three times across the past three weeks. With the injury issues at running back and a struggling opponent, expect him to continue to be involved offensively. Take a chance on the +255 odds for an anytime touchdown and expect Johnston to remain at the top of the Chargers offensive pecking order when in the red zone.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
