The Dallas Cowboys will host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the final matchup on Sunday’s Week 16 NFL slate.
Each matchup matters more at this stage of the season and this is the case for the Buccaneers with the season winding down. They entered the day with a one-game lead in the NFC South but the Atlanta Falcons are right on their heels and received a jolt of life from the decision to change quarterbacks. The Buccaneers control their playoff destiny but need to capitalize on the remaining matchups like tonight.
Dallas does not enter with as positive of a playoff outlook as it has dropped to 6-8 on the season with quarterback Dak Prescott being shut down for the season back in Week 8. While they are still mathematically alive in the playoff hunt entering the day, the Cowboys have some serious questions to face this offseason.
The Buccaneers enter this game as 4-point favorites and -205 on the moneyline. The Cowboys are +170 underdogs on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 47.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the Sunday night clash.
Mike Evans Over 81.5 Receiving Yards (-125)
The chase for Mike Evans to keep his streak of consecutive 1,000+ receiving-yard seasons is officially on. The future Hall of Famer is up to 749 receiving yards on the season so he needs 251 across his final three games to reach the milestone. This comes down to an average of 83.7 receiving yards per game across the final three matchups. Evans has recorded over 1,000 yards in the air in all 10 of his career NFL seasons to this point.
Evans helped his outlook for reaching this total last week by recording nine receptions for 159 receiving yards and two touchdowns. He has gone over 81.5 receiving yards in two of the past three games. Looking at this matchup, the Cowboys rank 30th in points allowed and 26th in yards given up. They rank 21st in passing yards allowed, 18th in passing touchdowns conceded and 29th in net yards per pass attempt.
The Buccaneers still have plenty to play for and Evans is their best offensive weapon. The record will be on his mind and Evans is still playing at a very high level. Expect Baker Mayfield to give him a few chances at big plays and for Evans to record over 81.5 receiving yards for the third time in four weeks with a struggling defense in front of him.
Baker Mayfield Over 247.5 Passing Yards (-120)
The Baker Mayfield resurgence has been real down in Tampa Bay. The former No. 1 overall pick ranks fifth in the league in passing yards, third in passing touchdowns and third in completion percentage. Overall, he is averaging 258.4 passing yards per game and has thrown for over 247.5 passing yards in eight of the 14 games.
The Cowboys have not proven to be able to consistently stop the pass this season. Dallas has allowed over 247.5 passing yards six times this season, including 359 against Joe Burrow and the Bengals just two weeks ago. The Cowboys are 30th in points allowed and 26th in yards given up while ranking 29th in net yards per pass attempt.
The Buccaneers are a pass-first offense and will continue to attack this way. Mayfield has produced more impressive passing outputs against tougher defenses, so expect Tampa Bay to leave it all on the table tonight with the playoff race at stake. Count on him to throw for over 247.5 passing yards for the ninth time this season and be at the forefront of the team’s production once again.
Rico Dowdle Over 90.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-115)
While the Cowboys have mostly been a disaster this season, Rico Dowdle has emerged as the season has progressed. The 26-year-old has played his best football as of late and enters this week with three consecutive weeks of 112 or more rushing yards. He is also involved in the passing game and has logged 33 receptions for 205 receiving yards and three touchdowns on the season.
While Tampa Bay has a high-powered offense, it has struggled on the defensive side of the ball. So far this season, it ranks 20th in points allowed and 27th in yards given up. The Bucs rank 22nd in net yards per rush attempt and have allowed 110 or more rushing yards across each of the past five weeks.
The Cowboys’ season-long goals look to be out of reach, but Dowdle still has plenty to play for as he looks to establish his ability to serve as the team’s primary running back moving forward. He has recorded over 90.5 combined rushing and receiving yards six times this season, including each of the past four weeks. Even if the Cowboys fall behind, expect Dowdle to play a role in the passing game and continue to chip away at the total. His level of opportunity has expanded in recent weeks, so count on this to continue with him recording 91+ yards from scrimmage again this week.
Jalen Tolbert Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson steal the spotlight in the Cowboys’ passing game, but Jalen Tolbert has also emerged as the season has progressed. Across 14 games this season, Tolbert has tallied 40 receptions for 462 yards and five touchdowns. Each of these marks a career-high for the third-year wide receiver.
While the loss of Dak Prescott has been disruptive to the Cowboys’ offense as a whole, Tolbert has built a nice chemistry with Cooper Rush. Tolbert is averaging 33.0 receiving yards per game on the season and has gone over 18.5 yards in 10 of the 14 games. He has been targeted at least twice in every game this season and has gone over 18.5 receiving yards in three of the six games with Cooper Rush starting at quarterback.
Expect Dallas to be forced to play from behind in this game and need to air the ball out. Tolbert has logged 65% or more of the offensive snaps in 13 of the 14 games this season, including a rate as high as 97%. He is a big-play threat who can eclipse 18.5 yards in just one catch and will receive the opportunity to make plays tonight. Count on him to record over 18.5 receiving yards on Sunday Night Football against a vulnerable defense.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
