The push for the NFL playoffs is here with each game holding some additional weight down the stretch. Week 16 is already off with the Thursday Night matchup between the Chargers and Broncos and then two Saturday afternoon matchups taking place between the Chiefs and Texans and the Steelers and Ravens.
Even still, there is plenty of action set to take place on the Sunday slate. Seven games are kicking off in the 1 p.m. ET slate and then four games in the 4 p.m. ET window before the usual Sunday and Monday night games.
There are far more ways to get involved in the action than just traditional betting. One of the more unique features on DraftKings this year is Pick6 Fantasy Football! This article will look at my top picks for the Week 16 slate in which you simply choose more or less than the assigned statistic. These picks will specifically look at Sunday’s matchups.
Jahmyr Gibbs More Than 92.5 Rushing Yards
The Detroit Lions received some unfortunate injury news as David Montgomery suffered an MCL injury which is set to keep him sidelined for an extended period of time. While Montgomery intends on rehabbing with the goal of returning for the playoffs, Jahmyr Gibbs will serve as the clearcut RB1 for the time being. Gibbs has been incredibly effective in his opportunities thus far and has a chance for his best output for the season as the Lions face the Bears.
Gibbs has 1,047 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns on 186 carries. He also has added 39 receptions for 395 yards and three touchdowns through the air. While Montgomery was considered the lead back, Gibbs has averaged 13.3 rush attempts per game and has seen as many as 21 carries in a game this season. Even with the limited carries, Gibbs has recorded more than 92.5 rushing yards twice this season. He has played three games in his career without Montgomery, totaling 300 yards including an 152-yard effort in one game.
This is a great matchup for Gibbs as the Bears have struggled to stop the run this season. Chicago ranks 26th in rushing yards allowed, rushing touchdowns conceded and net yards per rush attempt. This is the weakest point of their defense and they have not held an opponent to below 106 total rushing yards since Week 6. In the first matchup with the Bears, Gibbs ran for 87 rushing yards on just nine carries. With an additional workload set to be put on his plate, count on Gibbs to record more than 92.5 rushing yards this week.
Amon-Ra St. Brown More Than 0.5 Rushing & Receiving Touchdowns
The Detroit Lions have the best-scoring offense in the NFL averaging 32.8 points per game. They also are averaging 2.3 passing touchdowns per game which is tied for third in the league. Amon-Ra St.Brown has been a key part of this and has tallied 10 receiving touchdowns already this year which ranks third in the NFL among all pass-catchers. The star wideout is coming off his best performance of the season last week against the Bills. St. Brown tallied 14 receptions on 18 targets for 193 yards and a touchdown.
While Chicago’s rushing defense is its biggest weak spot, it is also vulnerable against the pass. The Bears rank 30th in net yards per pass attempt and 18th in passing yards allowed, but are third in passing touchdowns conceded. Even still, they have allowed seven passing touchdowns across the past four games and at least one passing touchdown conceded every week since Week 9.
St. Brown will be the top threat in the red zone for Detroit and is hungry to avenge his first matchup of the season against the Bears. While he still recorded five receptions for 73 yards, this is among his more mild outputs on the season. St. Brown has found the end zone in nine of the 14 games overall. Detroit still has plenty to play for as they are tied with the Vikings in the NFC North with each holding a 12-2 record. Expect a strong offensive output from the Lions and for St. Brown to find the end zone for the 10th game this season.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine Less Than 2.5 Receptions
The Tennessee Titans enter with a 3-11 record and have made a change at quarterback. Will Levis’ turnover issues have officially become too significant, so the organization is set to hand the offensive reigns back to Mason Rudolph. This week will mark Rudolph’s fourth start of the season and 17th start in the NFL. Across the three starts and five games of action he has tallied thus far, Rudolph has completed 63 percent of his passes for 1,015 passing yards, six touchdowns and five interceptions.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine deserves significant credit for his breakout this season. The fifth-year wideout is in the midst of a career year even despite the uneasy quarterback play. After being held without a catch through the first four weeks, Westbrook-Ikhine has improved his stats to 23 receptions for 393 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. He is tied for fifth in the NFL for the most receiving touchdowns.
While he has done a lot with his opportunities, the volume of targets has not been convincing for Westbrook-Ikhine. Overall, he has been held to less than 2.5 receptions in 11 of the 14 games. Across the past two weeks, he has tallied just three receptions on five targets. When factoring in the quarterback uncertainty, expectations should be even further tempered. He was held to less than 2.5 receptions in two of the three games during Rudolph’s first opportunity as a starter. Expect him to get a chance at a big play at some point in the matchup, but to ultimately be held to less than 2.5 receptions for the 12th time this season.
Bijan Robinson More Than 114.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards
Kirk Cousins signed a massive four-year, $180 million contract with Atlanta this past offseason, but his tenure with the Falcons may not even last the entire season. The organization elected to bench the veteran quarterback after he had thrown just one touchdown and nine interceptions across the past five weeks. Michael Penix Jr. will step into the starting role and the pressure will be immediately on him with the Falcons trailing the Buccaneers by one game in the NFC South.
While the quarterback change is notable, Bijan Robinson remains the most dangerous offensive weapon on the Atlanta roster. Through the opening 14 games, Robinson has recorded 1,102 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns while adding 54 receptions for 411 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown. Robinson is averaging 108.1 yards from scrimmage and has recorded more than 114.5 scrimmage yards in six different games.
Looking at this matchup, the Giants have struggled across the board. New York ranks 20th in points allowed, 21st in yards given up, 31st in rushing yards allowed and 31st in net yards per rush attempt. With the rookie quarterback set to make his first career start, expect Atlanta to do everything to make Penix comfortable. Count on Robinson being a key part of this game plan and for an increase in screen and short passing opportunities to get Penix settled in. With a weak defense, a rookie quarterback starting and Robinson proving capable, count on him to record more than 114.5 combined rushing and receiving yards this week.
Jayden Daniels Less Than 213.5 Passing Yards
The Washington Commanders will host the Philadelphia Eagles in an NFC East clash this weekend. Washington is still heavily in the playoff mix and a win would go a long way. Unfortunately, this will be a difficult matchup against an Eagles’ defense which is playing at an incredibly high level. The Eagles lead the NFL in fewest points and yards given up this season. They also have allowed the fewest passing yards and rank first in net yards per pass attempt allowed.
There are plenty of reasons to be encouraged by Jayden Daniels this season. The LSU product has completed 70.5 percent of his passes this season, throwing for 3,045 passing yards, 17 touchdowns and six interceptions. He is averaging 217.5 passing yards per game and has thrown for more than 213.5 passing yards in eight of the 14 games he has played.
In the first matchup with the Eagles, Daniels was limited to 191 passing yards. Philadelphia has only gotten stronger since this point and is coming off a matchup with the Steelers last week in which it limited Pittsburgh to just 163 total yards of offense. Expect Daniels to have a few flashes but to struggle against an Eagles defense that is playing among the best in the NFL. Count on him being held below 213.5 passing yards for the seventh time this season and the second time against the Eagles.
Kyle Pitts More Than 25.5 Receiving Yards
While Bijan Robinson will headline the plan of attack to make life easy on Michael Penix Jr, expect Kyle Pitts to also be heavily involved. Tight ends are a young quarterback’s best friend, and Pitts is a player the team is still desperately trying to get to play up to his potential. So far this season, Pitts has recorded 40 receptions for 536 receiving yards and three touchdowns.
On the season overall, Pitts is averaging 38.3 receiving yards per game. This is below last year’s average and well below the 60.4 yards per game he produced as a rookie. While he has not fully lived up to expectations, Pitts has recorded more than 25.5 receiving yards in eight of the 14 games. The Giants have allowed at least one catch to tight ends in every game this season and are giving up an average of 40.1 receiving yards to tight ends on the year.
With New York’s defense struggling and Atlanta seeking to get Pitts back to playing up to his full potential, there should be plenty of opportunity in this game. Expect Pitts to be viewed as a safety valve in the offense for his rookie quarterback. The Florida product can reach this total in just one catch if the opportunity presents itself, so count on him to record more than 25.5 receiving yards this week.
What is DraftKings Pick6?
Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (“Pick Set”) of at least two players and select whether you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
How to Play DraftKings Pick6
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing 2+ players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you cannot pick the same player twice and you must select players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ guaranteed prizes. Any prizes won will be credited to your DraftKings account after contests are finalized.
Play at DraftKings Pick6 or by downloading the DraftKings Pick6 app on Apple or Google!
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.Must be at least 18 years or older. Higher age limits may apply in some states. Eligibility restrictions apply. Valid only in states where DraftKings Pick6 operates. Void where prohibited. For entertainment purposes only. Winning a contest on DraftKings depends on knowledge and exercise of skill. See terms at pick6.draftkings.com.
