We are blessed with two games on Saturday. That’s usually when the cartoons are looping on the digital display. But look at this face. There is not a hint of dismay. The games are fantastic with the Texans visiting the Chiefs and the Steelers battling the Ravens. Talk about a pigskin cabaret! I am here to convey, the things I have observed while getting a lay of the land and sending out my scouts to survey. May the information allow you to sidestep the mines gracefully, like a professional in a ballet. Or you can just brute force it with the spray and pray. Whatever path you decide to embark upon, channel your inner Frank Sinatra and do it your way.
DraftKings Sportsbook has KC -3.5 over HOU at home with the total at 42.5. BAL is -6.5 over PIT at home with the total at 45.
DISCLAIMER: This piece was written on Thursday, so it won’t factor in injuries or lineup changes that occur closer to Saturday.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Saturday Special [$300K to 1st] (Sat).
Quarterback
Stud
Lamar Jackson, Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens ($8,200) – Jackson is the most expensive quarterback, and for good reason. He has the highest floor/ceiling combo. Jackson has failed to score at least 20 FPTS only twice this season, while he’s gone over 30 FPTS four times. He has four games with at least four passing touchdowns, with two of those with five! But what truly makes him special is his rushing prowess. Jackson has rushed 117 times for 743 yards and three touchdowns this season.
Now for the bad.
In the Week 11 matchup between the two teams, Jackson went 16-of-33 for 207 yards, a touchdown and an interception while rushing four times for 46 yards. Last season, Jackson went 22-of-38 for 236 yards and an interception while rushing six times for 45 yards.
Pittsburgh does have a very good defense and they intimately know the Ravens. That said, it’s only a matter of time before Jackson and the Ravens make the necessary adjustments. Over the last three games, the Steelers have allowed Jalen Hurts to throw for 290 yards and two touchdowns while Joe Burrow eviscerated this defense for 309 yards, three touchdowns and an interception.
Value
Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens ($5,700) – In the Week 11 matchup between these teams, Wilson went 23-of-36 for 205 yards and an interception. It was a sloppily-played game, as Baltimore had 12 penalties with Pittsburgh racking up seven. Baltimore also had three turnovers to one for Pittsburgh.
I’m expecting a higher-scoring game in this one with Jackson leading the Ravens to some points. If so, then Wilson will have to respond in due kind. He did throw for 414 yards and three touchdowns against the Bengals in Week 13. And the Ravens have allowed the second-most passing yards and fourth-most touchdown passes.
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Running Back
Stud
Joe Mixon, Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs ($7,800) – I don’t like paying up at running back on this slate. Both defenses are top five in EPA per carry and the Chiefs have allowed the fewest FPTS to running backs on average. That said, Mixon dominates the snaps and is a threat in the passing game, garnering at least six targets in each of the last three contests.
Other Options – Derrick Henry ($8,000)
Value
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens ($5,700) – In the Week 11 game, Najee Harris rushed 18 times for 63 yards while catching four of five targets for 30 yards. That game was a grind-it-out affair and I don’t expect a similar game script. In addition, the Ravens are third in EPA per carry, allowing a league-low 3.5 yards per carry. In that Week 11 matchup, Warren rushed nine times for 41 yards and caught all four targets for 27 yards. Over the last two weeks, Warren has garnered a higher snap share than Harris. Baltimore has allowed the seventh-most receptions to running backs. Finally, George Pickens is out, so Warren could see an uptick in involvement.
Other Options – Justice Hill ($4,800)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Nico Collins, Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs ($8,100) – Collins is the alpha and boo of CJ Stroud. Over the last four games, he’s received seven, nine, 11 and six targets. He was peppered with eight, 10, 10 and 15 targets to start the season before succumbing to injury. Collins has scored double-digit FPTS in all but one game this season.
Other Options – Zay Flowers ($5,900), Deandre Hopkins ($5,300), Xavier Worthy ($5,000)
Value
Calvin Austin III, Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens ($3,800) – With George Pickens out, the rest of the receivers move up a rung on the totem pole. Austin is only 5-foot-8 and 170 pounds, but he runs a 4.32 40. He’s scored double-digit FPTS five times this season with a high of 20.4 FPTS.
Other Options – Mike Williams ($3,700)
Tight End
Stud
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,300) – Andrews started off this season extremely slow, as he failed to notch double-digit FPTS in the first five weeks, with two of those bagels. Since then, he’s scored double-digit FPTS in all but two contests. The targets have been all over the map, but he’s scored a touchdown in four of the last five games. I do like this game to tilt more towards the air.
Other Options – Travis Kelce ($5,600)
Value
Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs ($3,400) – Schultz has reached double-digit FPTS just once this season, but that happened two games ago. The Chiefs are tough against running backs, so the Texans may have to tilt more toward the air. On the season, they have allowed the second-most receptions, the most yards and fourth-most FPTS on average to tight ends.
Other Options – Pat Freiermuth ($3,900), Noah Gray ($3,200)
Defense/Special Teams
Chiefs DST vs. Houston Texans ($2,700) – The Steelers DST is in play because they are the cheapest and have had success in the past against Jackson, but as mentioned above, I like Jackson to get busy this weekend. The Chiefs are at home and have racked up 10 interceptions, six fumbles, 32 sacks and one touchdown on the season. The Texans have allowed the fourth-highest pressure rate on the season.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.25M Saturday Special [$300K to 1st] (Sat).
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
