This should be a good one on Thursday night between the Warriors and Grizzlies, with both teams rested off the brief NBA Cup break. Early betting splits on DK Network show sharper action towards Memphis, but I can’t quite get there with Ja Morant carrying a questionable tag. Instead, I’ll look to the prop market.
Jaylen Wells is off to an impressive start to his rookie season. While he’s stayed under his point prop in three of his last four games, Wells is averaging 11.4 points this season. If we remove this recent four game stretch, Wells was riding a 17-3 streak to the over on his point prop, using the number of 8.5, which it’s set at on Thursday. That run includes going for 16 points in 27 minutes in a previous matchup against Golden State.
While a potential absence for Morant would probably create even more value on Wells, I think we already have enough to fire on this play. Marcus Smart is doubtful for this game, and in 10 games without Smart that Wells has played in this season, he’s averaging 14.7 points in just under 29 minutes of action (compared to 9.5 points in 22 minutes with Smart).
PLAY: Jaylen Wells OVER 8.5 Points (-110) 1-unit
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
