The San Francisco 49ers are virtually out of the playoff picture after losing to the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football last week, one year after coming within a blocked extra point of a Super Bowl title. To make matters worse, after suffering injuries to each of their top three running backs, they might be down a fourth on Sunday afternoon.
First, Elijah Mitchell suffered a torn hamstring during training camp, ending his season before it even began. Christian McCaffrey, last year’s AP Offensive Player of the Year, missed the first eight games of the 49ers season with Achilles tendinitis before suffering a torn PCL in San Francisco’s Week 13 loss to the Buffalo Bills that ended his season. The same week, backup Jordan Mason went down with a high-ankle sprain and was also placed on injured reserve.
Now, San Francisco might lose rookie Isaac Guerendo as well. Guerendo has been dealing with foot issues over the past few games, and he sat out Wednesday’s practice with a hamstring injury.
The only healthy running backs on the 49ers active roster are Patrick Taylor Jr. and Israel Abanikanda, who joined the team on December 3 after being waived by the New York Jets the day before. Right now, on DraftKings Sportsbook, San Francisco is a one-point underdog against the Miami Dolphins and the point total is set to 44.5, but both of those lines might change depending on Guerendo’s availability.
Guerendo has been pretty solid in relief of McCaffrey and Mason this year, taking 73 carries for 381 yards and four touchdowns. Since becoming the primary back in Week 14, he has put up a pair of solid games and become a factor in both the running and passing games.
Meanwhile, Taylor has played sparingly, but he did put up seven carries, 25 yards, and a score in the Week 14 blowout win over the Chicago Bears. The rookie from Memphis actually grades out higher than Guerendo by Pro Football Focus (63.1 to 62.4).
With or without Guerendo, I’m not expecting too much from Taylor in Week 16 against a decent Dolphins defense that has only allowed 1,450 rushing yards this season, the eighth-fewest in the league. Miami has also been good at preventing scores, allowing only 12 rushing touchdowns, tied for the 10th-fewest in football. The Dolphins have a pretty good pass defense, so maybe Brock Purdy will throw less frequently than usual, but I’m not super optimistic about either running back’s prospects in sunny South Florida conditions that should be ideal for passing.
I don’t think Taylor is a significantly worse back than Guerendo, and Abanikanda is unlikely to take many carries away from him if Guerendo is unable to play. Still, Guerendo put up only modest stats last week against a weak Rams defense in rainy conditions that should’ve incentivized Purdy to keep it on the ground. Taylor warrants a look in deeper leagues, but I’m skeptical of his upside as a top fantasy option on Sunday in Miami.
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