We have another full slate of baseball on tap for Tuesday, with all 30 teams scheduled to take the field. That includes a 14-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Let’s dive into three of my favorite wagers on DraftKings Sportsbook for Tuesday’s slate.
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Cincinnati Reds at Kansas City Royals:
The Pick: Reds ML (-105)
This matchup features two subpar pitchers. Jordan Lyles will get the ball for the Royals, and he’s pitched to a dreadful 6.84 ERA across 13 starts. Some of his advanced metrics are slightly better, but his 5.15 xERA and 6.01 FIP are still nothing to write home about. Brandon Williamson has a 5.40 ERA and a 6.34 xERA for the Reds, so he’s not any better.
With that in mind, this matchup should come down to the offenses. That’s where the Reds have a distinct advantage. The Royals are merely 27th in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers this season, and they have the ninth-highest strikeout rate in that split. The Reds are 21st in wRC+ against right-handers, and they should only improve in that department moving forward.
The Reds recently called up uber-prospect Elly De La Cruz, and he has lived up to the billing at the major league level. He owns a 146 wRC+ through his first seven games, adding one homer and four stolen bases. Adding De La Cruz to guys like Matt McLain, T.J. Friedl and Spencer Steer gives the Reds a very competent top five against right-handed pitchers, with each boasting a wOBA of at least .362 in that split. Ultimately, I’ll take my chances with their batters rather than with the Royals at essentially a coin-flip price.
Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Pick: White Sox ML (+170)
The Dodgers have been one of the best teams in baseball for the past decade, and they’ve won at least 106 games in the past three full seasons. That said, they’re not quite the same juggernaut in 2023. They’re sitting at 37-29, and while that’s good enough for a Wild Card spot, they’re currently 4.0 games behind the Diamondbacks in the NL West standings.
They’ll turn to Tony Gonsolin on Tuesday, and Gonsolin stands out as a prime regression candidate. He’s pitched to an immaculate 2.21 ERA this season, and he had a 2.14 ERA last year. However, his advanced metrics have taken a nosedive in 2023. His xERA has jumped all the way to 4.57, while his FIP sits at 4.47. Those numbers are both significantly worse than they were last year, while his K/9 has dipped from 8.22 to 6.64. Gonsolin has thrived due to a .177 batting average on balls in play, and while Gonsolin has always been better than average in that department, that’s still abnormally low. It’s the lowest mark in baseball among pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched, and only one other starter is below even .207.
Lance Lynn hasn’t been good for the White Sox, but there are still reasons to believe he’s a quality starter. He’s striking out nearly 10 batters per nine innings, but things haven’t gone well when balls are put in play. He owns a .340 BABIP, and 20.3% of his fly balls have turned into homers. Both of those figures are well above his career norms, and his 4.15 xFIP is significantly better than his actual ERA.
Despite the massive gulf in ERA, I don’t think there’s a huge difference between Gonsolin and Lynn. The Dodgers have the better offense, but getting +170 with the White Sox is too good to pass up.
Atlanta Braves at Detroit Tigers:
The Pick: Tigers First Five Innings ML (+220)
Let’s go from one big underdog to another. The Tigers are even worse than the White Sox, and unlike Chicago, they have to face a true ace in Spencer Strider. He’s striking out nearly 15 batters per nine innings, and he owns a 2.87 xERA and a 2.83 FIP.
That said, Strider is not infallible. He was roughed up by the Mets in his last outing, allowing eight earned runs across just four innings. In fact, he’s pitched to a 6.00 ERA across his past five outings. He’s still striking out a ton of batters, but batters are getting quality results when they do manage to make contact.
On the other side, the Tigers will send Reese Olson to the mound, who has had success at the MLB level to start his career. He’s only pitched 10 innings, but he’s posted a 2.70 ERA, a 2.32 xERA, and a 2.07 FIP. The Tigers’ bullpen is a bit worse than the Braves, but taking the first five innings moneyline negates that factor. The price tag is also nearly identical to the full-game moneyline, so I think that’s the best way to attack this spot.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is mlamarca) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.