Before 2024 ends, the UFC will host their final event of the year in Tampa, Florida. It is a Fight Night headlined by No. 6 Colby “Chaos” Covington vs. No. 9 Joaquin Buckley. Veteran Cub Swanson takes on Billy Quarantillo in the card’s co-main event. This is a fun fight card with exciting light heavyweight Navajo Stirling, who is opening up the Main Card against Tuco Tokkos. Vitor Petrino is also facing Dustin Jacoby in a three-round light heavyweight bout.
Check out my best bets below for UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley.
Joaquin Buckley to Win by KO/TKO/DQ (+150)
If I had told you that Joaquin Buckley would be in a Main Event matchup two years ago against Covington, you would have said I was crazy. But Buckley has quickly climbed the welterweight rankings after going 4-0 in the last 14 months with two devastating knockouts.
Although Buckley has had an incredible 2024, he is considered a powerful striker and a fun fighter to watch. That changes with a win over Covington. With a big-time victory over Chaos, he enters title contention and becomes a legit contender.
Buckley is the younger fighter by six years and has a significant reach advantage. Covington has better wrestling techniques and a more extensive background, but Buckley is still capable on the ground. Buckley has a 69 percent takedown defensive rate, while Covington only takes opponents down 44 percent of the time.
Buckley is a -245 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, but the better value is to get him to win by knockout at +150.
The striking stats are close, with Buckley having an advantage in significant strikes landed per minute and Covington being more accurate. But the x-factor of this fight is Buckley’s unreal power. He has one-punch knockout power; if he lands, it will be too much for the former interim champion to handle.
Vitor Petrino Moneyline (-340)
Even though Petrino was submitted by Anthony Smith in the first round at UFC 301 in May, he is still an intriguing prospect at 27 years old. Petrino won his first four fights in the UFC. He is 11-1 in his MMA career with eight finishes. He is facing veteran Dustin Jacoby, who has lost four of his previous five fights.
Jacoby does possess power in his hands, but Petrino is just as good of a striker, if not better. Petrino is also a more accurate striker than Jacoby. Unlike Jacoby, Petrino has multiple ways to win, including on the ground, where he lands 3.98 takedowns per 15 minutes. Petrino is a much better athlete than Jacoby. If he doesn’t rush anything and successfully defends Jacoby’s first few strikes, he has a great chance of returning to the win column.
Navajo Stirling to Win by KO/TKO/DQ (-185)
In Auckland, New Zealand, Eugene Bareman has created one of the best MMA gyms in the world. Have you ever heard of Israel Adesanya, Alexander Volkanovski, Kai Kara-France, and Dan Hooker? Yeah, City Kickboxing is the home of all those big stars in the sport. The latest fighter to enter the UFC Octagon from CKB is Navajo Stirling. It is time to familiarize yourself with him now because he is a future star in the light heavyweight division.
Stirling had a flawless performance on Dana White’s Contender series during Week 5 in September. He knocked out Phil Latu in the second round. He is 5-0 with four knockouts in his MMA career. This is his fifth fight in the last 14 months. Stirling is fighting Tuco Tokkos in the opening bout of the Main Card. Stirling has a three-inch edge (79″ vs. 76″) in reach while being seven years younger.
Stirling is a huge -750 favorite to win this fight on DraftKings Sportsbook. This is a mismatch, and Stirling should be able to get the finish if he controls the pace of the fight.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
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