I’ll give the Cowboys credit for this — they’ve now gone three games in a row without allowing the opposing starting running back to go over their rushing prop. The “hot streak” against the run has still only improved Dallas from 32nd to 30th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game. The defense underwent even more significant injuries in a heartbreaking loss to the Bengals on Monday Night Football, and now has to go on the road on a short week to face a Panthers team that’s playing surprisingly good football.
A lot of Carolina’s success on offense has been thanks to the consistency of Chuba Hubbard, who should be in line for a monster workload on Sunday. Not only is the matchup against the Dallas run defense favorable for Hubbard, but he has virtually zero competition in the backfield. Miles Sanders has been on IR since last month, and Jonathan Brooks re-tore his ACL this past week, ending his rookie season after just three games. Raheem Blackshear, who is questionable and yet to get a carry this season, is the only other running back on Carolina’s depth chart.
With Brooks getting just one carry before getting hurt, Hubbard wound up with 26 carries last week against a very strong Philadelphia run defense. I don’t mind also making a play on Hubbard to go over 18.5 rushing attempts given the projected workload, but I feel confident Chuba will turn it into yardage in this matchup. Hubard has seen at least 18 carries on five occasions this season, and averages 111 rushing yards in those games, with a low of 92. Would play this into the mid-80s.
PLAY: Chuba Hubbard OVER 80.5 Rushing Yards (-120) 1-unit
I’m also siding with the Panthers on the moneyline in this game, which I put out prior to Dallas kicking off on MNF. Since Bryce Young was forced back into action in late October in Denver, this Panthers team has been getting progressively better. Carolina struggled in that first game, but since then, Young has been playing his best football. They won their next two games, and have lost their last three to the Chiefs, Bucs and Eagles by six points or less. This is a competitive team right now, and catching a Cowboys squad on a short week and going on the road after suffering even more injuries in a deflating loss. This is a terrific spot for the Panthers, and I’d back them out to -2.5 or -140 on the ML.
PLAY: Panthers ML (-118) 1-unit
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