The Denver Broncos have been one of the surprises of the NFL season so far, sitting at 8-5 and firmly in the playoff picture coming off their late bye week. Rookie starting quarterback Bo Nix has been a revelation, especially in recent weeks, and with a couple of winnable games in the homestretch, Denver is in a strong position to make the playoffs.
Head coach Sean Payton has operated a rushing game by committee in the Mile High City so far this season, as five different rushers have led the team in rushing yards in individual games. The two most prolific have been second-year back Jaleel McLaughlin and fourth-year back Javonte Williams.
Williams entered the season as the incumbent starter and has racked up 124 carries, 446 yards, and four scores, although his 3.6 yards per carry is the fifth-worst rate in the league. However, he is coming off two true stinkers, an eight-carry, negative-two-yard performance against the Las Vegas Raiders on November 24 and a four-carry, one-yard showing against the Cleveland Browns on December 2.
Meanwhile, Jaleel McLaughlin is trending in the opposite direction. He hasn’t been as much of a workhorse as Williams, earning just 80 carries so far this season, but he has been more efficient, churning out 367 yards. Pro Football Focus ranks McLaughlin as the 40th best running back in the NFL, while Williams is ranked 50th. McLaughlin is coming off his best game of the season, turning 14 carries into 84 yards in a shootout win over the Cleveland Browns on December 2..
Despite his diminished performance, Williams has consistently appeared in a higher percentage of offensive snaps than McLaughlin; PFF grades him as a significantly better pass-blocker and a slightly better receiver than McLaughlin. But given Payton’s effusive praise of McLaughlin after the win over Cleveland, he is the better bet to receive a plurality of the handoffs next Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts are a better matchup for McLaughlin than for Williams. Although Indianapolis has a bad run defense — opponents have rushed for 1,911 yards, the second-most in the NFL — its passing defense is arguably worse. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 70.4% of their passes against the Colts to the tune of 3,226 yards, the sixth-most in football. Indy’s secondary issues mean Nix will be comfortable firing deep shots to his receivers, diminishing his running backs’ role in the passing game, which will disproportionally affect Williams.
Start or Sit: Start Jaleel McLaughlin, sit Javonte Williams.
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