Welcome to this edition of the DraftKings NFL DFS Edge Check! This week we are going to be using the Contest Simulations over at Paydirtdfs.com to take a look at each position and highlight some of the most undervalued options based on the sim results. This process involves utilizing ownership projections and projection distributions, and simulating contest outcomes to better understand how valuable a player really is in different field sizes.
We are going to break down the top overall edges, which gives us plays to focus on. If you want to see the players that appear to be overvalued that will hurt you in GPPs, check out the full contest sims on the site. If you use the code DKNATION at checkout on a monthly subscription, you’ll get 25% off your first month!
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QB Edge Distributions
I once again decided to sort the QB results by exposure today so we can get some context around who is found in the winning lineups:
- Will Levis ($5,000) has the highest edge at +17.73% and the highest exposure rate in winning lineups at 29.10%. This is mostly because of his price and value prop but also because there are a lot of expensive options at other positions that are a better use of salary.
- Sam Darnold ($6,100) and Kyler Murray ($6,000) are the other QBs with significant exposure rates at 27.80% and 22.10% respectively.
- Brock Purdy ($6,200) and Jalen Hurts ($7,800) bring up the read of the exposure rates and are neutral to negative values per Edge (-.98% and -5.36%).
QB is once again about value, though I have a feeling that will change slightly once we get confirmation of some of the questionable options in the AM!
RB Edge Distributions
Above are the top-five options are RB in terms of exposure rate in winning lineups.
The highest edge goes to Bijan Robinson ($7,500). His projected ownership of just 8.03% is less than half his exposure rate in winning lineups, which is at 17.90%. This gives him an edge of +9.87% even at a relatively rich price of $7,500. Especially considering the value we have at QB and TE this week he makes a lot of sense per the numbers.
The next highest edge away from the group goes to D’Andre Swift ($5,700). I was a bit shocked to see this price, and I guess the algorithms were too, especially after having great rushing marketshare (73%) and solid route participation (50%) against the Bears. His exposure rate in winning lineups from this set of contest sims came in at 21% giving him an edge of +8.40% over the field.
In the midrange, James Conner ($6,700), Bucky Irving ($6,600) and Tony Pollard ($6,400) all have solid edges offered in the 3-5% range. They all look to have decent ownership though, so if any of them comes in over expectation in that department that edge is going to fade quick.
The highest owned RB on the slate is not in the above image, you’ll want to check out the full Contest Sims on the site to see see where he ranks… :eyeballs_emjoi:
WR Edge Distributions
For WRs we went ahead and sorted the Paydirt contest sims by exposure.
This week the top of the food chain in terms of both exposure rate in winning lineups and edge offered is Calvin Ridley ($5,700). He hits the sweet spot of being accessible due to middling price and paired with a cheap QB that the contest sims love to pair together. However, I will caution that I think he comes in at 20%+ ownership when the cards flip tomorrow!
The rest of the WRs also sit comfortably in the midrange with the exception of Michael Wilson ($4,100). The two that are the most interesting (and projected for the most ownership) are Jakobi Meyers ($5,600) and Jauan Jennings ($5,200), who are at least $1,000 underpriced relative to their upside. Meyers has been averaging 30%+ of the targets since Davante Adams was traded and just has not seen enough of a price jump. Meanwhile Jauan Jennings gets a huge boost in efficiency with no Christian McCaffrey. Both have exposure rates of around 29.50% and are terrific plays.
There are five WRs with ownership projections of 10%+ this week that carry heavy negative edge numbers in the contest sims. You’ll want to check out the full Contest Sims on the site to see who you should fade on the high end!
TE Edge Distributions
Above you will find the five TEs with the highest edge from the contest sims.
There’s kind of an interesting mix here of TEs that are legit values and guys that are more a function of QBs the sims like.
Juwan Johnson ($3,400) and Jonnu Smith ($5,300) are both solid one-off options that are underpriced relative to their workload and upside. Juwan Johnson is here because Taysom Hill went down with a knee injury and he’s the next man up. His projection ownership of 8.36% is half of his exposure rate in winning lineups which gives us plenty of room to load up on him before he becomes overvalued. Jonnu Smith on the other hand is just nuking every slate and should be priced in the $6,000 range but isn’t His exposure rate in winning lineups is 11.40% while his ownership is 6.84%, giving him a positive edge of around 4.50%.
All of Trey McBride ($6,100), T.J. Hockenson ($4,300) and Grant Calcaterra ($3,500) are pairings with QBs that the contest sims view as undervalued. Starting with them in your stack makes for a high upside start with strong correlation.
Overall Thoughts on the Sims
I think that this week is shaping up to be super chaotic, and what we are looking at now is likely to be way different than what we will be assessing on Sunday morning. We already have a couple big name RBs ruled out that will shake up the ownership and the contest sims, and we have guys like Bucky Irving who are questionable and might flip everything upside down. When dealing with weeks like this it is key not to anchor to any given players because they could be a non-starter come lock!
That being said, I do think we can take some good info from the current batch of the contest sims:
- The midrange for WRs is very strong, and even if we have RB value open up I think it will be a continued focus.
- We have a lot of flexibility at QB that opens up different paths depending on who you want to spend up for.
- Roster construction is going to be variable, meaning that you can play optimally without worrying about killing your relative value.
As of now I am inclined to start builds with either TEN stacks of Levis + Ridley, or go with a Jalen Hurts QB+1 while utilizing Grant Calcaterra as value. I also think jamming in the game environment around the Vikings and Falcons makes a lot of sense and would give you a lower volatility build to start with.
Either way, this is a great slate for those that pay attention to the news. Make sure you are one of them!
Good luck and go grab some trophies. And remember, If you use the code DKNATION at checkout on a monthly subscription you’ll get 25% off your first month!
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Multichem) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.