We get a huge game in the NFC North on Thursday night, and taking a side will be popular. I’m pretty torn between riding with the public Lions due to their dominance over Green Bay, or getting a bit contrarian with the Packers. The short spread is telling, as the Lions are playing without a ton of key pieces on defense, and ultimately has me leaning more towards the Pack. But I do think the Lions will find success in certain aspects of this game, starting with the ground game.
Green Bay has a top-10 run defense in terms of yards per game allowed, however, it has benefitted from weaker competition in recent weeks, and the numbers have slipped when away from home. After consecutive home games against teams under .500, the Pack will now go on the road in the division. Green Bay’s run defense slips to about league average on the road, and the Lions have fared well in this matchup in recent seasons.
David Montgomery has actually rushed for over 60 yards in five consecutive matchups against the Packers, but that goes back to his days with Chicago. In three matchups against Green Bay as a Lion, Montgomery is averaging 88.3 rushing yards, including 17 carries for 73 yards at Lambeau Field in early November. Even with Jahmyr Gibbs in the mix for all three of those games, Montgomery has managed to carry the ball at least 15 times each time against the Packers, so I’d also consider the over on 13.5 carries.
With Montgomery off 21 carries for 88 yards on Thanksgiving, I’m expecting him to keep the hot hand on TNF at home.
PLAY: David Montgomery 60+ Rushing Yards (+105) 1-unit
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