The second time division rivals meet is usually a low-scoring affair. Detroit and Green Bay met in Week 9, with the Lions triumphing 24-14. The weather wasn’t great, though, as there was rain and wind. This game will be in the friendly dome of Ford Field instead. DraftKings Sportsbook has the total at 51.5, the highest of any game in Week 14. Both teams are implied to score at least three touchdowns.
In the Week 9 meeting, both teams rushed for over 100 yards. Jared Goff only threw 22 times for 145 yards, but he wasn’t needed much, as a 17-point second quarter that included a pick six essentially iced the game. That likely won’t be the case on Thursday. Jordan Love went 23-of-39 for 273 yards and an interception during the first meeting.
Detroit is one of the most balanced teams in the NFL, so their 11-1 record isn’t surprising. They are fifth in EPA per carry and second in EPA per dropback.
On defense, they have been the best in the league at defending passing attacks, posting -0.19 EPA per dropback. The 14 interceptions are third-most in the league.
Green Bay is 11th in EPA per carry and seventh in EPA per dropback.
On defense, they are 12th in EPA per carry and eighth in EPA per dropback.
DraftKings Sportsbook has DET -3 at home over GB with the total at 51.5.
As for Wednesday’s injury report, CB Jaire Alexander, LB Edgerrin Cooper and WR Romeo Doubs are out. Left tackle Taylor Decker is out. Stay informed on the most recent updates at DK LIVE.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (GB @ DET)
Captain’s Picks
Jameson Williams ($10,500 CP): There’s plenty of risk here for sure, as the floor is low. That said, a ceiling outcome is within the range of possibilties and the price allows for a robust flex roster. Over the last two weeks, Williams has garnered seven targets in each contest, the same number as Amon-Ra St. Brown. He also received two red zone looks last week. With his 4.39 40 speed, Williams can take any play to the house. An added bonus is the four rushing attempts he’s received over the last four weeks.
UTIL Plays
Josh Jacobs ($9,800): The Lions are very stingy in the secondary, so the path of lesser resistance is on the ground. If the Packers are going to score points, and they are implied for plenty, I side with Jacobs being in the best position to score most of them. In the Week 9 game against the Lions, Jacobs rushed 13 times for 95 yards while catching two of three targets for 13 yards. The Packers shifted more to Love in the second half as they were chasing points. Since that game, Jacobs has rushed 18, 26, and 19 times, putting up at least 20 FPTS in each of those contests with a high of 31.6.
Jayden Reed ($7,600): Jacobs can’t do it all! It’s not a matter of if, but when the Packers go to the air, so I like Reed to get most of the high-value targets. He only played 67% of the snaps last week while Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks played 94% and 89% respectively, but Reed led the way with six targets and four red zone looks. In the Week 9 matchup with Detroit, Reed led the way with five receptions for 113 yards.
Jahmyr Gibbs/David Montgomery ($9,000/$8,600): It’s too bad that this backfield is split because the fantasy production would be beyond unreal. As it stands, both Gibbs and Montgomery get busy. Once I see what the projected ownership numbers are, I will likely side with the lower-owned back, because I want a piece of this run game for sure. While Gibbs is the flashier back and can take it to the house on any play, Montgomery received seven red zone opportunities last week and has received three targets in each of the last three weeks. As for Gibbs over that same span? One, three, and four targets.
Fades
Jordan Love ($9,400): Love will likely get his yards, but I have doubts about scoring touchdowns. That’s why this lineup is geared more towards Jacobs. You can build a Love lineup for the possibility of it being a back-and-forth affair with him balling out. That’s not what this is, though. Love doesn’t provide much in the run game, so he really needs to throw for multiple touchdowns and close to 300 yards. In the Week 9 game, he finished with 11.92 FPTS despite throwing 39 times for 273 yards. On the season, Love has exceeded 20 FPTS only three times, with one game in single digits.
THE OUTCOME
I think this game is competitive for about a half, then the Lions pull away and sweep the leg.
Final Score: Lions 34, Packers 20
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Thursday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (GB @ DET)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
