We’ve got five weeks left in the regular season. Don’t give me that look! I ain’t teasing! I’m an honorable Son. So appreciate all the action…even the incompletions….because soon the Matrix will be commencing Operation Deletion. I travel the fantasy landscape on a weekly basis solo, trying to snuff out the mines while honing in on the bling at the Venetian. Yes, it’s a lonely existence and I often get beaten, but I’m a hot-blooded Korean so I will always get up to fight the demons. Good luck this week and may there be good nuggets of info that trickle down like the economics of Reagan.
There are 10 games on the main slate. DraftKings Sportsbook has six games with an O/U of at least 45: CAR/PHI (46), NYJ/MIA (45.5), ATL/MIN (46), LVR/TB (45), SEA/ARI (45) and BUF/LAR (49). There are two games with a total of 40 or below: JAX/TEN (40) and NOS/NYG (40.5).
There is one double-digit spread favorite: PHI -12 over CAR. There is one game within a field goal: ARI -3 over SEA. There are two home dogs: NYG and LAR.
This is the last week for byes, and there are six teams getting a break: BAL, DEN, HOU, IND, NEP and WAS.
DISCLAIMER: This piece is written early in the week, so it won’t factor in injuries or lineup changes that occur closer to Sunday.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
Quarterback
Stud
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams ($8,000) – Allen has scored at least 20 FPTS in each of the last seven games. He does it in snow. He does it in domes. He throws only 17 passes or hucks 40. In blowouts. In tight games. It doesn’t matter. In any environment, Allen provides the flames. He does have two games over 30 FPTS, so there is an access to ceiling if the Rams can push the Bills.
Other Options – Jalen Hurts ($7,800), Tua Tagovailoa ($6,300), Sam Darnold ($6,100)
Value
Aidan O’Connell, Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,800) – O’Connell has been in and out as the starting quarterback for the Raiders in his young two-year career. He’s had some good games. He’s had some bad ones. He is the antithesis of where Josh Allen is right now. That said, he did go 20-of-34 for 248 yards and four touchdowns last season against the Los Angeles Chargers then finished the season with 299 and 244 yards while throwing two touchdowns in each contest. Last week, he performed more than admirably against a stout Kansas City Chiefs defense, going 23-of-35 for 340 yards and two touchdowns. Now he faces a Bucs team that has allowed the third-most EPA per dropback.
Other Options – Russell Wilson ($5,900), Caleb Williams ($5,600), Will Levis ($5,000)
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Running Back
Stud
Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles vs. Carolina Panthers ($9,000) – This is the first time Barkley has been priced at $9k this season. This will come down to roster construction and ownership because there is merit to fading him. Barkley has two games with single-digit FPTS, one coming in a blowout and the other against what was once a stout Browns defense. The spread for this game is a massive 12 points and the Panthers have allowed the third-highest EPA per carry. Now, Barkley has five games over 30 FPTS this season, which includes a 49.2-FPTS performance. Decision, decisions.
Other Options – De’Von Achane ($8,200), Alvin Kamara ($8,000), James Cook ($7,400), Tony Pollard ($6,400)
Value
Isaac Guerendo, San Francisco 49ers vs. Chicago Bears ($5,400) – With Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason placed on the IR, this should be Guerendo’s backfield. Guerendo is 6-feet, 221 pounds and runs the 40 in 4.33 seconds. The 49ers selected him in the fourth round of the 2024 NFL draft. Guerendo has received double-digit carries in two games this season. He rushed 10 times for 99 yards and 14 times for 85 yards and a touchdown. Guerendo will likely be massively rostered, so decisions, decisions.
Other Options – Tyrone Tracy Jr. ($5,800)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams vs. Buffalo Bills ($7,700) – I wanted to go right back to AJ Brown, who disappointed last week, as he faces a Panthers team that has allowed the second-highest EPA per dropback. I do think he’s going to have a good game, but the lack of volume is concerning, especially since Saquon Barkley could dominate this game. Brown has received double-digit targets just once this season. He’s hauled in five or six passes in eight games! Nacua doesn’t have the home run ability of Brown, but he gets peppered with targets. Over the last four games, Nacua has garnered eight, 13, nine and 14. The Bills have scored at least 30 points in six straight, so the Rams will likely have to be aggressive in this one.
Other Options – AJ Brown ($8,100), Tyreek Hill ($7,100), Cooper Kupp ($7,000), Garrett Wilson ($6,600), Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6,300)
Value
Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,600) – Over the last two games, Meyers has received 11 and 15 targets, converting those into 15.7 and 25.1 FPTS. He has exceeded 20 FPTS two other times this season. I like Aidan O’Connell as a cheap quarterback option, so pairing him with Meyers and Brock Bowers is the likely stack. This game has a total of 45 with the Raiders 7-point underdogs, so they should be tilting toward the air against a Bucs defense that has allowed the third-highest EPA per dropback.
Other Options – Deebo Samuel ($5,900), Khalil Shakir ($5,900), Calvin Ridley ($5,700), Jordan Addison ($5,300), Jauan Jennings ($5,200), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($4,700), Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,600)
Tight End
Stud
Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6,500) – As mentioned in the above Meyers section, the Raiders will likely have to tilt toward the air in this one. And that’s a beautiful thing for fantasy because this Raiders passing offense is highly concentrated with Meyers and Bowers soaking up all the targets. Bowers has 113 targets on the season with six double-digit target games, three of which have come in the last three weeks. He’s gone for over 30 FPTS in two of the last three games.
Other Options – Trey McBride ($6,100), George Kittle ($5,800), Jonnu Smith ($5,300), TJ Hockenson ($4,300)
Value
Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints at New York Giants ($3,400) – The tight end position for New Orleans received 18 targets last week. Johnson had seven, Taysom Hill got seven and Foster Moreau garnered four. Hill is out for the season, so Johnson could approach double-digit targets in this one.
Other Options – Dawson Knox ($3,900), Pat Freiermuth ($3,800)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Vikings DST vs. Atlanta Falcons ($3,400) – Minnesota has allowed the third-best Pass EPA. The defense has racked up 21 sacks, tied for third-most in the league while intercepting 18 passes, the most in the league. Now they get to face Kirk Cousins at home.
Other Options – Eagles DST ($3,700), Buccaneers DST ($3,600), Steelers DST ($3,500)
Value
Titans DST vs. Jacksonville Jaguars ($2,800) – This unit just got thrashed by the Washington Commanders, but they get to face either, a wobbled Trevor Lawrence or Mac Jones in Week 14. In 12 games, the Titans have racked up six interceptions, four fumbles, 26 sacks and two safeties. They have put up three games with double-digit FPTS.
Other Options – Cardinals DST ($3,000), Saints DST ($2,900), Falcons DST ($2,500), Raiders DST ($2,300)
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st].
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
