The Bills and 49ers cap off a huge Sunday of NFL football in what should be a great AFC-NFC matchup in Buffalo. The weather looks like it will be windy and possibly snowy as the lake effect hammers Highmark Stadium. As you build your DFS lineups for Showdown contests like the NFL Showdown $1M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (SF @ BUF), keep the weather and conditions in mind as you try to build your roster. Looking at the matchups and the offenses, my top two options are James Cook ($14,400 as Captain’s Pick) of the Bills and Jauan Jennings ($11,100 as Captain’s Pick) of the 49ers.
Jennings is a higher-risk play but leaves more salary to add in other stars. Cook has shown a very high ceiling but should still bring enough leverage and could be the centerpiece of the Bills’ offense in the snow.
Here’s a deeper look at why I like these Captain’s Picks and how I’d go about building a lineup from top to bottom:
James Cook as a Captain’s Pick
If the Bills go run-heavy or rely heavily on short passes, Cook should be ready to rack up big fantasy points. The Bills are coming off their bye week, but before that Cook posted over 19 fantasy points against the Chiefs in Week 11, giving him 15+ fantasy points in three of the last four and six of the last nine.
He only had nine carries for 20 yards in the Bills’ last game but ran for two touchdowns and also saved his fantasy day by catching 5-of-6 targets for seven receiving yards.
Cook has gotten more than 10 carries in seven games this season, averaging 19.2 fantasy points per game in those contests. He has also hit his high point with over 28 fantasy points two times when the offense ran through him vs. the Seahawks in Week 8 and vs. the Dolphins in Week 2.
On the season, he has averaged 17.2 fantasy points per game, racking up 11 touchdowns, including three in the last three weeks.
The 49ers have been very beatable recently by running backs, specifically. Last week, Josh Jacobs ran for 106 yards and three touchdowns against them in cold conditions that could be similar to what San Francisco faces again this week. Opposing running backs have scored a touchdown in six straight weeks against the 49ers, totaling 10 scores over that span.
Cook will try to continue that trend on Sunday night and will bring a very high ceiling as a Captain’s Pick play.
Jauan Jennings as a high-risk alternative
If you’re trying to go more contrarian with your Captain’s Pick, Jennings is a solid option to consider from the 49ers’ side of things. Last week without Brock Purdy ($9,200), Jennings had five catches on seven targets for 40 yards. In each of his last two games with Purdy, though, Jennings has racked up huge games.
He had 11 targets against the Bucs in Week 10 and 11 more targets in Week 11 vs. the Seahawks. He had over 90 yards in each of those games and finished with 16.3 and 25.1 fantasy points even though he didn’t get into the end zone in either game.
Like Cook, Jennings also has a very high ceiling, which he showed off with three touchdowns and 49.5 fantasy points back in Week 3. He’ll have more competition for looks this week than he did in that game, but he should still be involved enough to be a great Captain’s Pick play.
The strength of his game is his great hands and effectiveness on short passes and over the middle, which could be what San Francisco has to rely on in the elements in Buffalo this Sunday night.
Lineup Blueprints
If you’re building around Cook as Captain, you can add in Josh Allen ($11,000) as a stack or Christian McCaffrey ($10,600) on the other side of the matchup. You can’t include all three of those stars, though, unless you’re going ultra-cheap in the rest of your roster.
If you think Cook will do the work on the ground and go with CMC in a FLEX spot you can include Purdy and Jennings before getting to your bargain plays.
If you go with Jennings as Captain, you can stack up Purdy and CMC while still leaving over $6,000 for your other spots. Or you can go Purdy-Jennings and go with Cook as a FLEX play leaving almost $7,000 for the rest of your spots and put together a well-balanced lineup from top to bottom.
Value plays
The top bargain option is Dawson Knox ($4,000) who will start in place of Dalton Kincaid (knee) for the second straight game. I wrote up Knox’s upside earlier this week and think he’s an excellent DFS cheap play.
Another strong bargain to consider is 49ers’ rookie Ricky Pearsall ($4,800), who didn’t have a catch last week but showcased good upside earlier this season.
Both defenses also make sense if wind limits offensive effectiveness and creates turnovers, but I’d avoid kickers unless you’re just trying to increase leverage and don’t mind extra risk.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
