The San Francisco 49ers will face off with the Buffalo Bills to conclude the Week 13 Sunday slate. Both these teams entered the season with deep playoff aspirations but hold drastically different outlooks at this point in the season.
Buffalo enters this matchup with a 9-2 record and holds a notable lead in the AFC East. They will officially clinch the division with a victory tonight. Josh Allen is the MVP favorite at +150 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook and Buffalo holds the fourth-best odds of winning the Super Bowl at +650.
San Francisco has dropped to 5-6 on the season and is in last place in the NFC West. While there is just one game of separation across the entire division, the 49ers hold +400 odds of making the playoffs and -575 odds of missing. Brock Purdy is expected to make his return to the field after missing last week with a shoulder injury, and the 49ers cannot afford to lose much from here.
It should be noted that the elements could play a role in this game. Temperature is expected to be 31 degrees at kickoff with the windchill making it feel like 21. There is up to three feet of snow expected by kickoff and snow removal crews have already been hard at work over the past few days. However, there is still a 24% chance of precipitation at kickoff and 12 mph winds expected according to Weather.com.
The Bills enter this game as 6.5-point favorites in the matchup and -278 on the moneyline. The 49ers are +225 underdogs on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 44.5 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the Sunday night clash.
Brock Purdy Under 224.5 Passing Yards (-115)
While it has not shown in the team record, Brock Purdy has played some high-level football this season. He has thrown for 2,613 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and eight interceptions on the season. Purdy is averaging 261.3 passing yards per game overall and has only been held to less than 224.5 passing yards in two games this year.
However, expect Purdy to struggle tonight. The 49ers are set to be without OT Trent Williams who cracks the short list of most valuable non-skill position players in the NFL. The 49ers are 0-4 in games without Williams over the past two years. Purdy has not had much experience playing in the snow in his lifetime. The Arizona native went to college at Iowa State and has spent all three of his years in the NFL in San Francisco. In addition, the Bills have been solid defensively this year. Buffalo ranks seventh in points allowed, 12th in passing yards allowed, and eighth in net yards per pass attempt. In addition, they have forced the third most interceptions this season.
Purdy is returning from a shoulder injury and it is unclear how close to 100% he truly is. With a respectable defense and difficult conditions to play in, look for there to be a more run-oriented approach from San Francisco. Look for Prudy to have some growing pains tonight as he desperately looks to keep the 49ers’ season alive and ultimately fall short of 224.5 passing yards.
Josh Allen Over 34.5 Rushing Yards (-125)
With the bright lights of prime time shining on him, Josh Allen will have a great chance to add to his MVP campaign. So far this season he has thrown for 2,613 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, and five interceptions. In addition, he has added 316 rushing yards and five touchdowns with his legs. He is averaging 231.2 passing yards and 28.7 rushing yards per game.
While San Francisco has built an identity as a defensive-minded team, they have not lived up to it this season. Overall, they rank 20th in points allowed, 12th in rushing yards allowed, and 29th in rushing touchdowns conceded on the year.
Allen has leaned on his legs more in recent weeks. He has recorded 20 carries across the past two weeks and produced 50 and 55 rushing yard outputs. Allen has also gone over 34.5 rushing yards in five of the 11 games overall. With the snowy conditions in mind and Allen leaning on his dual-threat abilities more, look for him to eclipse 34.5 rushing yards in primetime.
Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown (+110)
Josh Allen is dangerous all across the field with his legs but does most of his damage in the red zone. The Bills franchise quarterback was tied for second in rushing touchdowns across the NFL last year recording 15 on the season. He has reached paydirt 58 times on the ground in his career which makes for an average of nine rushing touchdowns per season.
So far this year, Allen has reached the end zone on the ground just five times. However, he is coming off back-to-back games with a rushing touchdown. The Wyoming product boasts a 6-foot-5 frame and is capable of running right through defenders at the goal line.
Expect Buffalo to lean on his legs around to goal line and eliminate the risk of putting it in the air. Allen has been a bit underutilized around the goal line compared to years pas, but the weather and game script should change this tonight. Allen has a style of play tailor-made for matchups like this and expect this to result in a rushing touchdown tonight.
Dawson Knox & George Kittle to Combine for 100+ Receiving Yards (+150)
The Buffalo Bills will continue to be without top tight end Dalton Kincaid who has been out since Week 10 due to a knee injury. This has led to an uptick in targets for backup tight end Dawson Knox who is coming off back-to-back games with 40 yards receiving. On the other side, George Kittle continues to make his case for one of the most complete tight ends in the NFL this season. He has averaged 71.3 receiving yards per game this season and has tallied 64 or more yards in six of the nine games he has played this year.
Kittle will be expected to lead the charge in the receiving category. He leads the 49ers in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns this season and will continue to be a top weapon in the offense. He also possesses a style of play that will not be impacted by the snow and should leaned on even further in this game. Knox is a more than capable pass-catcher in his own right. He is coming off a season-high in targets and catches and has gained the trust of Allen. Look for him to continue to build off this as he remains the top active tight end.
There is a bit of a risk that comes with the +150 odds, but I am buying the elements impacting the long passing game and for both teams to be forced to attack over the middle. Expect both tight ends to be heavily involved in their offenses and to gradually wear away at this total. Taking the duo to combe for over 100 receiving yards is worth taking a chance on tonight.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
