Week 13 of the NFL season is already off to the races. With three games on Thanksgiving and one Black Friday matchup, it is a bit of a smaller slate this Sunday.
Even still, all 32 teams will be playing this week with the six remaining teams set to have their bye next week. Just seven games are kicking off in the traditional 1 p.m. ET slate and three in the 4 p.m. window. Nonetheless, the NFL has a funny way of producing its most chaos when we least expect it.
As you seek to maximize your DFS lineups, here’s a look at a few players who could have the inside track to outperform their price points. Be sure to get some superstars in your lineup, but here are some lower-budget names who could help you win your competitions!
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Quarterbacks:
C.J. Stroud ($6,400)
Entering the week as the sixth-most expensive quarterback, C.J. Stroud is not exactly a “value” play but is set for a massive performance this week. Last season’s Rookie of the Year has battled a bit of a statistical regression in year two. While he still deserves to be mentioned among the top quarterbacks in the NFL, Stroud has a level of ability he has not shown yet this year.
Look for this week’s matchup against the Jaguars to be the perfect breakout opportunity. Jacksonville ranks 31st in points allowed and dead last in yards given up on the season. They also are last in the NFL in passing yards allowed, passing touchdowns allowed and net yards per pass attempt given up.
Stroud is averaging 15.3 fantasy points which ranks 24th among quarterbacks this year. The weak Jaguars defense is a perfect cure to the struggles Stroud and the Texans have faced. This will be the second matchup between the AFC South opponents with Stroud producing 23.5 fantasy points in the first game. The Texans’ franchise quarterback is better than he has played this season and has shown flashes of getting back on track. Expect him to put all the pieces together and beat his season-high fantasy output with their postseason goals still in sight.
Russell Wilson ($5,700)
The Steelers will be facing off with the Bengals this week who enter with a 4-7 record. While they have played better football than their record would indicate, their defense has been the clear area holding them back. Cincinnati ranks 28th in points allowed and 23rd in yards given up. The Bengals rank 23rd in passing yards allowed, 24th in passing touchdowns given up and 20th in net yards per pass attempt.
The Steelers’ offense drastically changed when Russell Wilson took over quarterback duties midseason. He’s opened up the passing game for Pittsburgh and has been impressive. Across his five starts, Wilson has thrown for 1,212 passing yards, seven touchdowns and just two interceptions. He is averaging 15.4 fantasy points per game in these starts and has recorded as many as 24.9 fantasy points already this year.
While the Steelers’ defense has been impressive, Joe Burrow is playing terrific football this year and will provide a tough task. It would not be surprising if this turns into a shootout, and Wilson needs to match Burrow’s offensive output. Expect him to outperform his price point as the 11th-most expensive quarterback.
Running Backs
Brian Robinson Jr. ($6,100)
The Commanders have cooled off from their red-hot start to the season but still sit at 7-5 with their playoff hopes alive. Unfortunately, running back Austin Ekeler suffered a concussion and is on the IR. He will miss at least the next four games.
While this is a hit to the Commanders’ backfield, it gives more opportunities to Brian Robinson Jr., who has been the more productive running back this season. Robinson has 537 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on 122 carries this season. He ranks 24th among all running backs in fantasy output this season averaging 13.6 fantasy points per game.
It should be noted that running back Jeremy McNichols will remain in the mix and has tallied 44 carries for 217 yards and four touchdowns this year. Still, Robinson will get the first opportunity on the team and should get the better of this Titans’ defense. While most of Tennessee’s problems have been self-inflicted, it ranks 27th in points allowed and 19th in rushing touchdowns given up. Expect Robinson to see an uptick in opportunity and make the most of his carries in this game. Count on him to outperform his price point as the 16th most expensive running back.
Bucky Irving ($5,800)
A familiar face on the value list, Bucky Irving should also be in a lot of lineups this week. The Buccaneers’ running back broke out last week recording 12 carries for 88 yards and a touchdown as well as six receptions for 64 yards. He finished third among all running backs in fantasy production last week, trailing only Saquon Barkley and Josh Jacobs, with a total of 27.2 points based on DraftKings scoring.
His price point increased from $5,300 last week to $5,800 this week, but this still is great value. He has continued to make his case as to why he is the best running back in the Tampa Bay backfield. While he has played one more game, Irving has tallied 16 more carries than Rachaad White. In these opportunities, he has produced 237 more yards and three more rushing touchdowns.
Heading into this week, the Buccaneers will face off with the Carolina Panthers. While they have been playing better overall football lately, the Panthers are extremely vulnerable in their rushing defense. Carolina ranks dead last in points allowed and 30th in yards given up this season. They also are last in rushing yards allowed, rank 31st in rushing touchdowns given up and are 24th in net yards per rush attempt. With Irving riding high off his performance last week and a struggling defense in front of him, expect the rookie to outperform his price point as the 19th most expensive running back.
Wide Receivers
Brian Thomas Jr. ($5,500)
As the Jacksonville Jaguars prepare to face the Houston Texans, expect there to be plenty of opportunities to throw the ball. The Jaguars sit at just 2-9 on the season but are projected to have Trevor Lawrence back under center this week after a two-game absence due to a shoulder injury. This will not solve any of the team’s defensive issues, but improves the outlook for Brian Thomas Jr. significantly.
Thomas Jr. has 689 yards and five touchdowns on 42 receptions this year. He ranks 16th among all wide receivers in total fantasy production. Despite this, he enters this week as the 24th most expensive wide receiver.
Houston has had its ups and downs defensively this season. It ranks 15th in total points allowed across the NFL and also are 31st in passing touchdowns given up. Thomas Jr. will be the top weapon in the Jaguars’ offense. He leads the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns, and will now have the added benefit of playing with Lawrence again. While the Jaguars’ season outlook is bleak, everyone in the organization is playing for their job security. Expect the team to go down swinging and for a strong output from Thomas Jr., even if the bulk of the passing production occurs with the game out of reach.
Xavier Legette ($5,100)
While the outlook for the season may be lost, the Carolina Panthers are showing plenty to build off in these final few weeks of the season. Bryce Young has finally looked like the potential franchise quarterback the team thought it drafted, and the team is coming off a thrilling 30-27 loss at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs. Another bright spot on this Panthers team has been the emergence of rookie wide receiver Xavier Legette.
Legette has 340 yards and four touchdowns on 33 receptions this season. He has especially come on strong in recent weeks, recording three or more catches in each of the past four games and reaching the end zone in two of these matchups. Carolina is set to face off with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who rank 24th in points allowed and 29th in yards given up. Their pass defense ranks 29th in yards allowed and 27th in pass touchdowns conceded.
With the Panthers showing some signs of life offensively and the Buccaneers struggling, expect Legette to continue adding to his rookie numbers. Look for him to outperform his price point as the 28th most expensive wide receiver.
Joshua Palmer ($4,300)
There were hopes that Joshua Palmer could take the next step in his development coming into the season. Unfortunately, he has been overshadowed by rookie Ladd McConkey from the season-wide perspective. Even still, the Chargers’ offense has looked increasingly dangerous as the season has progressed with Justin Herbert playing some of the best football of his career.
Palmer has 403 yards and one touchdown on 23 receptions. However, he has recorded at least one catch in every game this season and is coming off a season-high eight targets last week. Los Angeles is set to match up with the Atlanta Falcons who have had some struggles defensively as well. Overall, Atlanta ranks 25th in both points and yards allowed. Their pass defense ranks 26th in passing yards given up and 29th in passing touchdowns conceded.
Buy the stock in the Chargers offense moving forward. Palmer typically gets at least one chance at a long catch throughout a game and pulling this in can change the outlook of the entire week. Even if he cannot connect, there should be enough volume for Palmer to be positive player from a fantasy football standpoint.
Tight End
Mike Gesicki ($4,100)
The Cincinnati Bengals have their backs against the wall as they still have playoff hopes but hold a record of just 4-7. While the defense has some significant concerns, the offense has been impressive. They rank sixth in scoring, ninth in total yards and lead the NFL in both passing yards and passing touchdowns.
Mike Gesicki has been inconsistent this season and enters this week ranked 22nd among tight ends. He has 383 yards and two touchdowns on 34 receptions this year. While he was held without a catch last week, Gesicki tallied five receptions for 100 yards and two touchdowns just two weeks prior.
Heading into this matchup, the Bengals will face the Pittsburgh Steelers. While Pittsburgh is a strong defense, it’s shown some vulnerability to tight ends. The Steelers have allowed at least four catches logged by tight ends in every game this season. This includes Isaiah Likely’s 75 receiving yards and Mark Andrews’ 22 yards just two weeks ago. Expect Gesicki to be involved in the offense and give some consideration to plugging him into your lineups as the ninth most expensive tight end this week.
Will Dissly ($4,000)
As the Chargers’ offense continues to grow, Will Dissly has seen his opportunities expand. The veteran was held to fewer than four catches in each of the first four weeks before exploding on the scene. He has 399 yards and one touchdown on 41 receptions this season. He broke out for eight receptions for 81 yards in Week 6 and has recorded four or more receptions in four of the five games since.
As the Chargers prepare to face off with the Falcons, expect Dissly to continue being a part of the game plan. He is limited in terms of his big play ability, but has sure hands and has been underutilized in the red zone. Dissly is also coming off a season-high 75 percent of offensive snaps last week. His lone touchdown also occurred two weeks ago, which was encouraging to see.
The ceiling is a bit limited for Dissly, who currently ranks 21st among tight ends in fantasy output. But he is guaranteed more targets than most tight ends and can be penciled in for a few catches. Expect him to outperform his price point as the 10th most expensive tight end in Week 13.
Defense & Special Teams
New York Jets Defense & Special Teams ($2,500)
Things have gone from bad to worse for the New York Jets rather quickly this season. They enter this week with a 3-8 record and are now set to face off against the Seattle Seahawks. While New York has a lot of issues, the defense has been pretty far down on the list. The Jets rank 12th in points allowed and sixth in yards given up. New York has been especially strong against the pass, allowing the fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL and ranking second in passing yards allowed.
Seattle is a team that does most of its damage through the air, ranking second in passing yards on the season. That said, the Seahawks rank 15th in the NFL in scoring and have been held to 20 or fewer points in each of the past four games. With Seattle showing some signs of struggle and New York’s defense being its strongest point, plugging the Jets’ defense in wouldn’t be a bad idea.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
