The Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears will face off as the appetizer for a full day of football and our turkey dinners. This NFC North matchup does not hold as much weight in the standings as expected at this point in the season, but the Lions have become must-watch television weekly.
Detroit enters this game with a 10-1 record. They lead the NFL in scoring at 32.7 points per game while holding opponents to the second-fewest points per game at just 16.6. Chicago has slipped to 4-7 and has lost five consecutive games leading into this matchup. While the goals for the season may already be out of reach, just about everyone within the organization is playing for their jobs next year so there is still plenty at stake.
The Lions enter this game as 9.5-point favorites in the matchup and -440 on the moneyline. The Bears are +340 underdogs on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 48 points. With the stage set, here are my favorite prop bets for the Thanksgiving Day clash.
Caleb Williams Over 228.5 Passing Yards (-120)
Caleb Williams has not lived up to the sky-high expectations he carried coming into the season. The hype surrounding the Bears was derailed rather quickly with offensive line, coaching and defensive issues all showing face. That said, Williams still has shown some significant flashes, and the Bears will continue to build up the rookie quarterback.
Williams is averaging 214.2 passing yards per game. He has gone over 228.5 passing yards just four times this season but is coming off 340 yards passing last week. While Detroit has allowed the fewest passing touchdowns on the season, they rank 25th in passing yards allowed.
The Lions have an explosive offense that will likely require the Bears to be playing from behind. Expect this to result in additional passing opportunities for Williams. It may not be the cleanest route to reaching this total, but Williams should have plenty of chances to air the ball out. Look for him to continue adding some positive points to his rookie resume by throwing over 228.5 yards in his first Thanksgiving game.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime Touchdown (-110)
As a team, the Lions rank first in the NFL in scoring, second in total yards, sixth in passing yards and fourth in passing touchdowns. Amon-Ra St. Brown is a key part of this attack and has climbed up the conversation of best wide receivers in the NFL. St. Brown has tallied 71 receptions, 747 receiving yards and nine touchdowns this season. He ranks fourth in the league in receptions, eighth in receiving yards and second in receiving touchdowns.
While he was kept out of the end zone last week, St. Brown had recorded a receiving touchdown in eight consecutive games before this. Chicago’s defense has been solid this year, ranking eighth in points allowed and giving up the third-fewest passing touchdowns, but the Lions will be the most difficult test yet.
Expect Detroit’s offense to break things open during this matchup and for Jared Goff to throw St. Brown’s direction often. While St. Brown is on the injury report and was limited at practice earlier in the week, he told reporters he expects to play and has battled through injury before.
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 98.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards (-115)
While the Bears’ defense has been strong overall, they have struggled the most stopping the run. Chicago ranks 20th in rushing yards allowed, 23rd in rushing touchdowns given up and 26th in net yards per rush attempt. Detroit built its dynamic rushing attack to expose this point of concern.
Both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs will have opportunities to make an impact in this game. That said, my favorite prop bet between the two is Gibbs’ over 98.5 rushing and receiving yards. Gibbs has gone over this number in six of the 11 games this season. The Lions use him in both the run and pass game, and he has tallied at least 12 touches in every game this season. Gibbs has breakaway speed and can turn any play into a massive gain.
Expect Gibbs to put together a strong performance following his season-high 24 touches last week. He should surpassed 98.5 scrimmage yards again this week.
Amon-Ra St. Brown to have 50+ Yards in Each Half (+650)
Located in the player specials section on DraftKings Sportsbook, you can get +650 odds of St. Brown to record 50+ yards in each half. This is a big swing, but St. Brown should see great volume on Thanksgiving.
St. Brown has gone over 100 receiving yards three times this year, including as many as 161 yards in Week 11. Having to hit 50 yards in each half increases the risk, but Detroit’s offense has been clicking on all cylinders. Goff has targeted St. Brown 37 more times than the Lions’ next leading receiver.
St. Brown has had success on Thanksgiving before, tallying 95 yards last year and 122 receiving yards in 2022. He has grown into an even bigger star since this point and seems to be at his best when the lights are the brightest. Note the risk that comes with the +650 odds, but it is worth taking a shot.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
