Having finally escaped the treadmill of perpetual mediocrity, the Detroit Lions appear poised to make a Lombardi Trophy run. Their run-heavy offense, led by the one-two punch of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, has propelled the team to elite status.
Montgomery suffered a shoulder injury in Week 12, and while he logged a limited practice on Tuesday, the halfback’s status may be in question for Thursday’s Thanksgiving Day game.
Coming off the short week, how valuable is his backfield mate Gibbs if Montgomery misses this Week 13 contest?
An electric asset
After a breakout rookie season last year in which he tallied 1,261 scrimmage yards and 11 total touchdowns, the former first-round pick has taken his game up a notch in year two.
Through 11 games, Gibbs has taken 154 carries for 886 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns, with 32 catches for an additional 265 receiving yards and one score. He’s on pace to shatter his rookie-season yardage totals and has already tied last year’s touchdown numbers in five fewer games. Gibbs ranks fourth in rushing yards this season despite falling 18th in total rush attempts.
He’s electric on the field, but even more so in fantasy football. Gibbs is averaging 19.4 DraftKings fantasy points per game and is just 36 points shy of tying last season’s total. On the year, he ranks as the RB5 in PPG and is the RB4 in total points scored, all despite having played one fewer game than some of the competition due to a bye week.
Week 13 outlook
The Lions, on just three days of rest since their last game, face a division rival in the Chicago Bears this week. The Bears rank 20th in rushing yards allowed per game (129.7), 23rd in average rushing TDs allowed (1.1), and 18th in EPA/rush (-0.03).
It’s a pretty solid matchup for a Detroit squad averaging the fourth-most rushing yards per contest (150.8), second-most rush TDs (1.9), and third-most rush attempts (32.4).
Despite their struggles, the Bears are a better team than their record may indicate. However, the Lions are a buzzsaw which cuts through nearly any opposition unlucky enough to have them on the schedule. Game script for Detroit should be positive in this one, which leads to a larger reliance on the ground game.
If Montgomery sits…
The one-two punch of Montgomery and Gibbs is effective because the bruising back wears out the defense, allowing the agile speedster to rip off big plays. That doesn’t mean Gibbs isn’t effective without his running mate, though. In three games in which Montgomery was inactive, Gibbs has 54 carries and 15 catches for 397 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns.
The 22-year-old is nearly averaging 20 fantasy points while sharing work with Montgomery. If the latter is forced to miss time, Gibbs should slide into the RB1 role and receive a lion’s share of the workload without a sweat. If this is the case, expect a top-12 finish against Chicago, with potential for Gibbs to claim the week’s RB1 crown.
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
