There will be plenty of extra storylines ahead of this Monday night matchup. The Baltimore Ravens and Los Angeles Chargers are set to square off with each looking like a threat in the AFC. This will also mark the first time brothers Jim and John Harbaugh face off as head coaches since the 2013 Super Bowl.
This game will have plenty of stakes both in the NFL standings and at the Thanksgiving dinner table. Los Angeles enters with a 7-3 record and has won four consecutive games leading into this matchup. Baltimore holds a 7-4 record but has to pick itself up off the mat after a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week.
The Ravens enter as 3-point favorites and with -162 odds on the moneyline. The Chargers are +136 underdogs on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook, while the game total is set at 51 points.
There are far more ways to get involved in the action than just traditional betting. One of the more unique features on DraftKings this year is Pick6 Fantasy Football!
Ravens at Chargers Pick6 Plays
The Baltimore Ravens have looked like every bit of the Super Bowl threats they desire to be. Derrick Henry has been a perfect fit in the Baltimore backfield and added a new dimension next to the dynamic play of Lamar Jackson. There is a case to be made that the two-time MVP is playing the best football of his career, even with the bar being so high. The biggest concern for Baltimore is with its defense, which ranks 23rd in points allowed and 25th in yards given up across the NFL this season.
The Los Angeles Chargers have exceeded early expectations and are growing into a team that is beginning to be taken seriously from a postseason perspective. They have built a defensive identity and are holding opponents to the fewest points per game this season. Justin Herbert is playing some great football and, for the first time, has the defense to back him up. This will be a great test for the Chargers and has a chance to be a statement game.
With the stage set, here are my top Pick6 choices for the Week 12 Monday night matchup.
Justin Herbert More Than 263.5 Passing Yards
It has taken some time for Justin Herbert to earn the trust of Jim Harbaugh in the offense. The Chargers leaned heavily on their defense and running game to start the season but have gradually opened up the playbook for their franchise quarterback. Herbert was held to 20 or fewer passes twice during the first four weeks of the season and did not throw for more than 179 yards during this time.
Since then, he has thrown for over 237 passing yards in five of the past six games and has aired the ball out an average of 31 times per game. On the season overall, Herbert has averaged 218.6 passing yards per game. However, he has averaged 268 passing yards throughout the past six weeks and tallied more than 263.5 passing yards in four of these games. Herbert also averaged more than 263.5 passing yards in three of the four previous seasons.
This is a great opportunity to build off his success against a struggling Ravens pass defense. Baltimore ranks dead last in passing yards allowed and 30th in passing touchdowns given up so far this season. It has allowed more than 263.5 passing yards in six of the 11 games this season. With Herbert’s level of offensive opportunity continuing to expand and a poor defense in front of him, expect him to have no problem recording more than 263.5 passing yards tonight.
Ladd McConkey More Than 65.5 Receiving Yards
One of the driving reasons for Herbert’s recent success has been the emergence of rookie Ladd McConkey. In his first 10 games in the NFL, McConkey has produced 43 receptions for 615 yards and four touchdowns. The Georgia product is coming off a 123-yard receiving performance last week and has tallied 111 yards and two touchdowns in a game already this season. No other Chargers wide receiver is within 250 yards of his receiving total.
While it is worth noting McConkey is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury, the expectation is he will still suit up tonight. The 23-year-old will benefit from the struggling Ravens defense as long as he is on the field. McConkey has been targeted seven or more times in five of the last seven games and recorded at least two catches in every game this season.
Look for the rookie to be busy throughout tonight’s game. McConkey is a high-level route runner who can be used in a variety of ways. He is capable of breaking free for a big gain but likely will be used primarily in the short passing game to gradually chip away at this number. There will be enough volume for him in this matchup, so look for the rookie to add to his strong season by recording more than 65.5 receiving yards tonight.
Derrick Henry More Than 83.5 Rushing Yards
The production level of Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry this season may be enough to swing the pendulum on the refusal to pay running backs. Both players have been perfect fits and raised the ceiling of their new teams. Henry has proven a perfect backfield complement to Lamar Jackson and the Ravens rank second in the NFL in team rushing with 177.2 rushing yards per game, trailing only the Eagles.
Henry has been at the heart of this production for the Ravens, averaging 107.7 rushing yards per game. He also has an NFL-best 13 rushing touchdowns. While this seems unsustainable by the standard of most players, Henry has led the NFL in rushing yards twice already in his career and his current rushing average ranks third among his career output.
The Pro-Bowl running back has recorded more than 83.5 rushing yards in seven of 11 games he has played this season. Henry possesses a level of physicality that wears on a team, often leading to longer runs later in games. This will continue to be the case and Henry will see plenty of opportunity in this game. Look for him to set the tone for this Ravens’ offense and record more than 83.5 rushing yards again tonight.
J.K. Dobbins More Than 46.5 Rushing Yards
On the other side of the running back battle sits J.K. Dobbins. The 26-year-old has emerged as the clear-cut lead back in the Chargers’ offense after beginning the season splitting carries with Gus Edwards. Through the opening 10 games, Dobbins has seen 152 carries compared to Edwards’ 54. Dobbins is averaging 72.6 rushing yards per game on the season overall and has recorded more than 46.5 rushing yards in seven of the team’s 10 games.
While the Ravens’ defensive metrics grade well against the run, this is a bit inflated due to opponents’ focus on attacking through the air. Baltimore has also operated with a lead for most of the season, which has limited the rushing opportunities for opponents. Dobbins has run hard this season and he also has some added motivation as he started his career with the Ravens before leaving this offseason.
Expect the Chargers to keep their attack balanced and for Dobbins to get a fair amount of carries in this game. The 46.5-rushing yard total is too low based on how he has produced this season, so look for the Chargers’ running back to reach this number again tonight. Having revenge on his mind will only help this case.
Isaiah Likely More Than 25.5 Receiving Yards
It has been a bit of an up-and-down season for Isaiah Likely. While he remains behind Mark Andrews on the tight end depth chart, he has found a role for himself in the offense independent of this. On the season overall, he has recorded 28 receptions for 346 yards and three touchdowns. Likely has recorded more than 25.5 receiving yards in six of the 10 games he has played in this season.
Likely has seen at least one target in every game this season and tallied as many as nine receptions in a game already this season. The Chargers have defended tight ends well and are the only team in the NFL to not allow a touchdown to a tight end this season. While Likely may not be the guy to snap this streak, expect him to still make an impact through the air.
Look for the Ravens to spread the ball around and for several Ravens’ pass catchers to play a role. Expect Likely to be a part of this and to record more than 25.5 receiving yards in this matchup. He will be a bit of an X-factor for the Ravens tonight, so don’t be surprised if this ends up being a much bigger performance than most expect.
Joshua Palmer Less Than 2.5 Receptions
There were hopes coming into the season that Joshua Palmer could take the next step in his development and climb to the top pass catcher on the Chargers’ roster. Now 10 games in and this has not proven to be the case. Overall, Palmer has tallied 20 receptions for 365 receiving yards and just one touchdown on the season.
Palmer has only recorded more than 2.5 receptions in two games this season. As McConkey continues to break out and Quentin Johnston looks to be back on track in his developmental arc, expect Palmer to be the guy that takes a back seat. He has recorded at least one catch in every game this season, but the ceiling for production is much lower for Palmer compared to the other two wide receivers ahead of him on the depth chart. Tight end Will Dissly may also land on this list.
Expect there to be other beneficiaries in the Chargers’ offense but for Palmer to remain in a backseat role. He has logged just 30% and 49% of the offensive snaps across the past two games he has played and it is worth adjusting to such and taking advantage of him recording less than 2.5 catches tonight.
What is DraftKings Pick6?
Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (“Pick Set”) of at least two players and select whether you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
How to Play DraftKings Pick6
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing 2+ players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you cannot pick the same player twice and you must select players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ guaranteed prizes. Any prizes won will be credited to your DraftKings account after contests are finalized.
Play at DraftKings Pick6 or by downloading the DraftKings Pick6 app on Apple or Google!
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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