I’m pretty torn on a side for Monday Night Football, but do lean towards the Ravens to bounce-back from a tough loss — particularly with how the Chargers finished on SNF last week, despite ultimately holding on for the win over the Bengals. That said, I prefer a prop in this one, as I feel the game script of a Chargers victory or the Chargers playing from behind will rely on the arm of Justin Herbert.
Herbert got off to a slow start to the season through the air, but it wasn’t for lack of efficiency. Matchups and game scripts just limited his opportunities to sling it, which kept him under 200 passing yards the first four games. Herbert threw for 237 yards the next game in Denver, and since then has finished with 279 or more passing yards in four of five games.
The one game that Herbert didn’t put up big numbers over his last five was another game script and matchup spot, going against a solid Tennessee pass defense in a game the Chargers were in command the whole way. But recent outings of 349 yards at Arizona, 279 vs. New Orleans, 282 at Cleveland and 297 last week against the Bengals are all very encouraging for the direction of the Los Angeles passing attack.
With a MNF matchup against the Ravens up now, Hebert should continue to see success airing it out. Baltimore has allowed the second fewest rushing yards per game this season, so even in a matchup against his brother, Jim Harbaugh has to acknowledge that he might not have the advantage running the ball in this game. Nobody surrenders more passing yards per game than this Ravens defense, and Herbert should be able to take advantage. In 11 games this season, the opposing quarterback has thrown for 269 yards or more on eight occasions.
With the passing attack trending up for the Chargers, look for Herbert to add his name to the list of QBs to top that number. I’m making a small play on Hebert’s passing yardage, and laddering his yards up in Same Game Parlays should be a good look in this one.
PLAY: Justin Herbert OVER 259.5 Passing Yards (-115) 0.5-units
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