Week 12 has already brought plenty of excitement and thrilling finishes, and Monday Night Football brings the week to a close and starts off Thanksgiving week with a family feel as the Harbaugh brothers face off in Los Angeles. Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers face John Harbaugh’s Ravens in a fun fantasy matchup that features some great contests, including the NFL Showdown $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (BAL @ LAC). There are two Captain’s Picks I like a lot from this Monday night Matchup, one from each side. Derrick Henry ($16,200 as Captain’s Pick) is a pay-up play from the Ravens, or you can go against the crowd and go with bargain play Will Dissly ($9,600 as Captain’s Pick) from the Chargers. Dissly could be in for even more volume if Ladd McConkey ($9,000; shoulder, questionable) is out.
Here’s why those options make sense:
Derrick Henry’s reign in Baltimore
Henry has been awesome in his first season since joining the Ravens. He has double-digit fantasy points in every one of his 11 games and has scored 15 touchdowns while averaging 107.7 rushing yards and 9.6 receiving yards per game.
King Henry couldn’t get a ton going in Week 11’s loss in Pittsburgh, totaling just 11.5 fantasy points, but he had a great average with 65 rushing yards on 13 carries. It was tied for his second-fewest carries of the season, so he’ll be looking to bounce back this week against the Chargers.
The Chargers’ defense has been solid against the run most of the season, but they have given up double-digit fantasy points in four of their last five games, including last week when they gave up 86 rushing yards and 57 receiving yards to Chase Brown of the Bengals.
Henry has scored in 12 straight games dating back to last season, and he’ll look to extend that streak and be a solid pay-up play to build around on Monday Night Football.
Will Dissly as a leverage play
Given his consistent success, Henry is likely to be very chalky in the Captain’s Pick spot. However, if you’re looking for a leverage play, check out Dissly, who has emerged as a key part of the Chargers’ offense over the last few weeks.
While he didn’t come with the fanfare of King Henry, Dissly was also a free agent this last offseason. He was released by the Seahawks in March and signed with the Chargers eight days later. Los Angeles also brought in Hayden Hurst, who is now sidelined by a hip injury. Dissly took over as the top tight end while Hurst was hurt earlier this season and has surged to the forefront as Justin Herbert ($10,400) has gotten healthy after his early-season ankle injury.
Dissly has at least four catches in five of his last six games, and he broke out last week for his first touchdown and 18.0 fantasy points against the Bengals. He came just one yard short of his season-high with 80 yards as well.
He has averaged 6.6 targets over his last five games, and could get even more work if McConkey is unable to go. McConkey has averaged 6.2 targets per game over that same span. Dissly is a better play if Ladd is out, but he’s a strong option either way since he’s a great affordable piece to build around as a Captain’s Pick or include as a FLEX play if you build around Henry or Lamar Jackson ($11,000) on the other side.
Building a winning lineup
Whichever of these Captain’s Picks you roll with, the other is a good FLEX play. Jackson is a great option in a flex spot as well while Quentin Johnston ($7,400) will be a boom-or-bust play, especially if McConkey is out. J.K. Dobbins ($10,000) is facing his former team after posting 16+ fantasy points in three of his last four games and scoring the winning touchdown last week against the Bengals.
For value plays, Joshua Palmer ($5,200) could be good if McConkey vacates targets. For the Chargers, Gus Edwards ($2,800) has been getting enough work as the backup running back to be a solid value play. Diontae Johnson ($3,000) hasn’t made a big impact since joining the Ravens at the Trade Deadline but brings plenty of upside once he settles in.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
