In the final game of tonight’s NBA slate, the Denver Nuggets will face off with the Los Angeles Lakers. Nikola Jokic made his return to the court last week after missing the previous three games. While it came in a frustrating loss to the Dallas Mavericks, Jokic picked up right where he left off and finished with 33 points, 17 rebounds, and 10 assists.
Outside of Aaron Gordon, DaRon Holmes, and Vlatko Carter remaining out, the Nuggets enter with a fairly clean bill of health. The Lakers continue to be without Jared Vanderbilt and Christian Wood. Jaxson Hayes has been ruled out for this matchup due to an ankle injury, Jalen Hood-Schifino is considered doubtful due to a hamstring injury, and Anthony Davis is listed as probable as he continues to battle through his plantar fasciitis.
The Lakers enter this game as four-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Nuggets are +145 underdogs on the moneyline with the game total set at 235 points.
As the Nuggets prepare to face off with the Lakers in the final matchup of tonight’s slate, here are the best Nikola Jokic prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Nikola Jokic Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook has set Nikola Jokic’s prop lines for points (27.5), rebounds (12.5), assists (9.5), and made three-pointers (1.5). Here are the top betting options to consider:
Over 27.5 Points (-115): The point line for Nikola Jokic is set at 27.5 points with the odds set at -115 for both the over and under. So far this season, Jokic has averaged 30.0 points per game which would be a career-high for the three-time MVP. He has gone over 27.5 points in six of the 11 games he has played this season.
The matchup with Anthony Davis provides an interesting layer to this. Jokic and Davis are two of the best centers in the league and have had plenty of battles against each other. In the 23 regular season games between the two, Jokic has averaged just 20.0 points per game. However, Jokic has gone over 27.5 points in two of the past three matchups and also averaged 28.2 points per game in the five-game playoff series last year. While Davis deserves his respect as one of the best defenders in the NBA, Jokic has been forced into more of a score-first role this year and the numbers have shown this. I like him to hit the over tonight.
Over 12.5 Rebounds (+100): The rebounding line for Nikola Jokic is set at 12.5 rebounds with the odds for the under favored at -130 and the odds for the over set at +100. The Nuggets’ superstar is leading the NBA this season averaging 14.0 rebounds per game. He has recorded over 12.5 rebounds per game in seven of the 11 games he has played this season including logging as many as 20 rebounds in a game.
Davis will provide some resistance in this area as well as the Lakers’ big man is seventh in the NBA averaging 11.2 rebounds per game. Across the 23 regular season matchups, Jokic has averaged 10.0 rebounds per game. He has gone over 12.5 rebounds in five of the last seven regular season matchups and also averaged 16.2 rebounds per game during last year’s playoff series. With Davis playing such strong basketball and Jokic being on the second night of a back-to-back I like the under for the MVP’s rebounding prop.
Over 9.5 Assists (-148): The assist prop for Nikola Jokic is set at 9.5 with the over heavily favored at -148 odds. The odds for the under are set at +115. Jokic ranks second in the NBA in assists, trailing only Trae Young, and is averaging 11.5 per game on the season. He has gone over 9.5 assists in eight of the 11 games so far this season.
Across the 23 matchups with Davis, Jokic has averaged just 5.8 assists per game. He has only gone over 9.5 assists in two of the past 11 matchups. Jokic did average 9.8 assists per game in last year’s playoff matchup as a point of optimsim. While there is no doubt about the caliber of playmaker that Jokic is, I have more concerns about the players surrounding him being capable of knocking down shots. As impressive as he has been this season, the -148 odds feel too steep and I like the value of taking a chance on the under at +115 odds.
Over 1.5 Made Three-Pointers (+145): The three-point line for Nikola Jokic is set at 1.5 with the under-favored at -188 odds and the odds for the over set at +145. Jokic is shooting 3.7 three-point attempts per game this season and connecting at an NBA-best 58.5%. While this is not a sustainable percentage from a season-long perspective, Jokic is currently making 2.2 three-pointers per game. He has gone over 1.5 made three-pointers in six of the 11 games including making as many as seven in a game.
Jokic has seen an uptick in perimeter shooting when facing Davis. With the Lakers’ star’s shot-blocking presence likely a reason why, Jokic has made over 1.5 three-pointers in two of their last three matchups and averaged 4.4 three-point attempts across their past nine matchups. Jokic reached this number in two of the five games in last year’s playoffs. While Jokic is not an overly aggressive shooter from the perimeter he has been forced into the role more this season. I like the +145 odds for him to hit a pair of long-range shots tonight.
Futures Outlook: While he already has three MVPs in his back pocket, Nikola Jokic is the betting favorite to win MVP this season at +225 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Nuggets also hold the sixth-best odds of winning the NBA Championship at +1400 odds and hold +600 odds of winning the Western Conference, trailing only the Oklahoma City Thunder.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
