The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns kicked off the Week 12 slate in a thrilling snow-filled Thursday Night matchup. Jameis Winston made the most of the moment and led the Browns to a 24-19 victory over the AFC North leader.
There are six teams with a Week 12 bye: the Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Cincinnati Bengals, Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints and New York Jets. The NFL and fantasy football playoffs are inching rapidly closer and each game holds more weight from here on out.
As you seek to maximize your DFS lineups, here’s a look at a few players who could have the inside track to outperform their price points. Be sure to get some superstars in your lineup, but here are some lower-budget names who could help you win your competitions!
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Quarterbacks:
Tua Tagovailoa ($5,800)
The Miami Dolphins have not gotten off to their desired start to the season. They enter this matchup with the New England Patriots with a 4-6 record and are in desperation mode to keep their playoff hopes alive. Tua Tagovailoa suffered another concussion in Week 2 which kept him out for the next four games. Miami’s offense hit a full halt without their franchise quarterback, but they’ve begun to hit their stride again. I expect this level of production to reach a new peak in the coming weeks.
Tagovailoa is coming off his best output of the season tallying 23.5 fantasy points against the Las Vegas Raiders. The matchup with the Patriots presents a great opportunity to build off this. New England ranks 18th in points allowed, 20th in yards given up, 20th in passing yards against, 16th in passing touchdowns allowed and 24th in net yards per pass attempt.
Tagovailoa enters this week as the 11th most expensive quarterback and has a great opportunity to outperform this price point. Beyond the statistical output, the Dolphins offense looked to be back on track and clicking on all cylinders. Don’t be surprised if he raises the bar once again and this is his best statistical output this week.
Drake Maye ($5,500)
On the other side of the quarterback matchup will be Drake Maye. The rookie quarterback took things in from the sidelines for the first five games and has started the six games since. Maye has looked the part of a starting-caliber quarterback and has provided hope for the Patriots franchise moving forward. He has thrown for 176.6 yards per game, nine touchdowns and six interceptions this season. He also has added 260 rushing yards and a touchdown with his legs.
While Miami’s offensive drop-off was the biggest surprise, their defense also holds some blame for their disappointing start. The Patriots are the only team they have been able to hold below 15 points this season, but it should be noted Jacoby Brissett was starting at quarterback for that matchup. Miami also has allowed 325 or more total yards of offense in each of the past four weeks.
Maye is averaging 14.2 fantasy points per week but has had 18.0 or more in three of his six starts. His rushing ability provides a high floor for his production as he has tallied at least three rushing attempts in every game as a starter and tallied as many as 95 rushing yards. While Maye likely will not win you the week, look for him to outperform his pricepoint as the 14th-most expensive quarterback. Keep the rookie in mind as you look to save funds for other positions.
Running Backs
Kareem Hunt ($5,700)
This may be the last week that Kareem Hunt is the clear-cut top running back in the Chiefs backfield as Isiah Pacheco is nearing a return. Hunt has been impressive in his second stint with the Chiefs. Across seven games, he has rushed for 509 yards, five touchdowns and added 116 receiving yards. He is averaging 72.7 rushing yards and 16.6 receiving yards per game while scoring in four of the seven games, including two touchdowns against the 49ers.
Hunt is the 30th-best running back based on fantasy football output on DraftKings scoring on the season despite not playing a snap until Week 4. He has tallied a double-digit fantasy output every week except last week and as many as 22.3 fantasy points this season.
The Chiefs are set to face off with the Carolina Panthers, who enter with a 3-7 record and rank dead last in points allowed. They also are 29th in total yards allowed, 32nd in rushing yards allowed and 31st in rushing yards given up. With a weak opponent and a significant amount of guaranteed touches, Hunt is a slam dunk to have in your lineups this week.
Bucky Irving ($5,300)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are coming off their bye week and set to face off with the 2-8 New York Giants. The Giants made plenty of headlines with their decision to release Daniel Jones, and it has become clear that their focus has already shifted to next season. While the Buccaneers’ outlook is not as positive as it was earlier in the season, they are not out of the playoff hunt just yet. Look for them to capitalize on the opportunity and for the running game to be at the heart of their attack.
On the season, New York ranks 29th in rushing yards allowed and dead last in net yards per rush attempt. The Buccaneers have operated with a backfield by committee to this point, but the production of Bucky Irving has stood out in recent weeks. Overall, Irving has received 96 carries and 26 receptions compared to Rachaad White recording 80 carries and 37 receptions.
Iriving has received at least seven carries in every game and tallied double-digit touches in eight of the 10 games. He ranks 28th among all running backs in fantasy football output based on DraftKings scoring. Irving is averaging 11.6 fantasy points per game and 15.4 or greater in three of the past four weeks. Expect both running backs to receive ample opportunity in this game but for Irving to be in the driver’s seat. There will be plenty of chances against this struggling Giants team and expect Irving to outperform his pricepoint as the 23rd-most expensive running back.
Wide Receivers
Xavier Worthy ($5,000)
It has been an up-and-down season for rookie Xavier Worthy. The 28th-overall pick has struggled to find a consistent role in the offense but the flashes of what he is capable of have been evident. The rookie is coming off a strong performance last week in which he tallied 61 receiving yards and a touchdown on four receptions. He ranks 46th among wide receivers in fantasy production on the season.
Heading into this week, the Chiefs are set to face off with the Carolina Panthers. In addition to their poor rushing defense, Carolina ranks 24th in receiving yards allowed and 25th in passing touchdowns. Beyond the struggling defense and impressive output last week, it seemed to be a conscious effort to get Worthy involved in the offense.
Look for this effort to continue as the Chiefs are still aiming to reach their offensive ceiling as a team. Worthy is the biggest weapon the team has and will be a key part of this. Worthy is a boom-or-bust player, but Carolina has very little optimism defensively. It could take just one play for it to be worth having him in your lineups. He has been held to five or fewer fantasy points in four games this season so the risk is there, but this is a week worth taking a chance on the rookie.
Demario Douglas ($4,500)
There has been inconsistent output for DeMario Douglas this season which can be partially attributed to the quarterback play. As Maye seems to be finding his footing, Douglas’ outlook is as positive as ever. On the season overall, he has tallied 43 receptions for 415 yards and a touchdown.
Look for the matchup with the Dolphins to present a great opportunity for Douglas to produce a strong statistical output. The second-year pass-catcher finished last season strong and has an opportunity to do the same this season. He has logged four or more catches in each of the last three games and 50+ receiving yards in two of these matchups.
This is more of a gut play than what the stats are showing, but if the Patriots are set to pour on the offense against Miami, Douglas will be involved. He has at least three targets and two receptions in all but one game this season. Douglas did most of his damage in the screen game last season but has not been incorporated as much this year. Look for this to expand and for this to result in a solid fantasy output. There are 37 wide receivers with more expensive price points than Douglas, so he is worth taking a chance on this week.
Devaughn Vele ($3,900)
The Denver Broncos have been a pleasant surprise this season and enter this week with a 6-5 record. Devaughn Vele has been a part of this and has particularly come on strong in recent weeks. On the season overall, the rookie has tallied 26 receptions for 281 yards and a touchdown. He has tallied at least one catch in every game and is coming off back-to-back games with four catches.
The Broncos will square off against the Raiders this week. Las Vegas ranks 29th in points allowed and 25th in passing touchdowns given up. The Raiders also have allowed the most fantasy points per game to slot receivers which is where Vele will primarily line up. Since Week 5, Vele has logged an 11.8 percent target share and is being targeted as the first read in the offense 14.8 percent of the time.
The numbers have not been eye-popping but the opportunity is there for the rookie wide receiver. It feels like he has not had his true breakout performance yet and this divisional matchup could be the perfect opportunity. Look for him to grow into a capable fantasy starter weekly and for this to be shown this week.
Tight End
Jonnu Smith ($4,100)
It has been a weak season overall for tight-end production, but Jonnu Smith is making his case for why he deserves to be mentioned among the top names in the position. On the season overall, Smith has tallied 39 receptions for 448 yards and three touchdowns.
He is coming off a terrific week of production, tallying six receptions for 101 yards and a pair of touchdowns. While this is an outlier to an extent, the 29-year-old has tallied at least three receptions in each of the past six weeks. Smith has tallied 45 or more yards in five of the past six weeks. He also is coming off a season-high 81 percent of offensive snaps.
As the Dolphins prepare to face the Patriots, look for Smith to continue to be involved in the offense. While he will likely take a slight statistical step back from the 31.1 fantasy points he tallied last week, count on Smith to outperform the pricepoint as the ninth most expensive tight end.
Zach Ertz ($3,800)
Led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, the Washington Commanders may top the list as the biggest surprises this year. The Heisman Trophy winner has changed the entire outlook for the organization and raised the offense to a level that few believed was possible this quickly. Zach Ertz has benefitted greatly from Daniels’ play, especially shining in recent weeks.
While he is no longer capable of making defenders miss in the open field, Ertz has sure hands and veteran experience that the Commanders need. On the season overall, Ertz has tallied 43 receptions for 428 yards and two touchdowns. He has tallied at least one catch in every game and recorded as many as seven receptions. Just last week against the Eagles, Ertz caught six passes for 47 yards and a touchdown. This was good for 18.7 fantasy points on DraftKings scoring.
As the Commanders prepare to face the Dallas Cowboys, this is a great chance for Ertz to continue his production. Dallas ranks 31st in points allowed, 27th in total yards given up and 31st in net yards per pass attempt. Ertz already ranks as the ninth-best fantasy tight end on the season and is in line to build off this. Expect him to comfortably outperform his price point as the 12th-most expensive tight end.
Defense & Special Teams
Denver Broncos Defense & Special Teams ($3,200)
This choice is a bit more expensive than I prefer to go as the Denver Broncos enter this week as the seventh most expensive Defense and Special Teams. However, I love the matchup as the Broncos prepare to face off with the Las Vegas Raiders with their defensive unit already buzzing.
Denver ranks third in both points and yards allowed. The Broncos are averaging 3.5 sacks per game, which is the second-best rate in the NFL, and go through stretches where it feels they are generating pressure on nearly every play. The Raiders rank 24th in scoring and 30th in yards gained on the season. They also have turned the ball over at the second-worst rate and rank dead last in rushing yards.
Expect the pressure the Broncos create to cause some significant problems for the Raiders. Gardner Minshew has been unable to find that spark he’s shown in previous years. Denver is coming off a performance last week in which it held the Falcons to just six points and 226 total yards of offense. Look for them to continue rolling and have a strong chance at the best fantasy output of any defense this week.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
