The Houston Texans and Dallas Cowboys are set to face off on Monday Night Football to conclude the Week 11 NFL slate. This cross-state matchup does not hold its expected level of luster with Dak Prescott injured, but the bright lights on primetime should still provide us with some solid football.
The Texans enter as 7.5-point favorites and -355 favorites on the moneyline. The Cowboys are +280 underdogs on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook, while the game total is set at 41 points.
There are far more ways to get involved in the action than just traditional betting. One of the more unique features on DraftKings this year is Pick6 Fantasy Football!
Cowboys vs. Texans Pick6 Plays
The Cowboys’ season has quickly gone from bad to worse. They enter this game with a 3-6 record and are set to be on the outside looking in at the playoffs. This was solidified with Dak Prescott being shut down for the season due to a hamstring injury. Cooper Rush will suit up at QB for the Cowboys’ offense, which ranks 22nd in points scored and yards gained on offense. Their defense is 31st in points allowed and 27th in yards given up.
Things have been a bit smoother for the Texans. They enter this matchup with a 6-4 record and lead the AFC South. C.J. Stroud has taken a bit of a step back this season and the organization has battled injuries with Nico Collins missing several weeks and Stefon Diggs out for the season. Houston will be looking at this matchup as a get-right spot and still have their playoff aspirations within reach.
With the stage set, here are my top Pick6 choices for the Week 11 Monday night matchup.
Nico Collins More Than 74.5 Receiving Yards
Nico Collins is set to make his long-awaited return to the field after being sidelined since Week 5 with a hamstring injury. At the time of his injury, Collins led the NFL with 567 receiving yards and also added three touchdowns. He recorded more than 74.5 receiving yards in all five games he played and is considered a full-go without any sort of restriction tonight.
While the Texans had a loaded wide receiver room at the start of the season, the loss of Stefon Diggs changes things. Collins will be necessary to the offense as there is no longer an abundance of pass-catching options. He has flashed the ability to be one of the best wide receivers in the league and is building off the 1,297 receiving yards he tallied last year.
The Cowboys have struggled defensively this season, ranking 31st in points allowed and 27th in yards given up. They also are 31st in net yards per pass attempt. Expect there to be a clear effort to get Collins back in the flow of the offense and for the star wide receiver to benefit off the struggling Cowboys defense. 74.5 yards is too low of an expectation for a player of his caliber, so expect Collins to record more than this as he re-announces his presence to the NFL world.
Jake Ferguson More Than 35.5 Receiving Yards
There have not been very many bright spots for the Cowboys this year, but Jake Ferguson has continued his developmental arc towards the top tight ends. Across the eight games he has played in, Ferguson has tallied 42 receptions for 358 yards. He is averaging 44.8 receiving yards per game and has recorded more than 35.5 receiving yards in four of the eight games he played in.
Expect the Cowboys to play from behind and air the ball out throughout this matchup. Outside of CeeDee Lamb, who is set to play through a back injury, Ferguson will be the top target on the Cowboys. The Wisconsin product also has seen an increase in production since Cooper Rush took over at quarterback with 95 receiving yards across the past two weeks.
Whether it is in garbage time or when the Cowboys still have a chance, expect Ferguson to see plenty of targets. Count on him to record more than 35.5 receiving yards for the fifth time this season and don’t be shocked if it takes just one play to get there.
C.J. Stroud More Than 233.5 Passing Yards
Following a near-perfect first season in which C.J. Stroud won Rookie of the Year, led the NFL in passing yards per game, and had the lowest interception rate in the league, he has (understandably) taken a slight step back. While much of this can be attributed to the injuries at wide receiver and other factors that should not change the way you view Stroud, he has statistically not been the same this season. With the goals for the season still within reach, the struggling Cowboys defense could be the exact cure to get him back on track.
It also should be clear that even a “struggling” Stroud has been far more productive than many starting quarterbacks around the league. He has averaged 237.1 passing yards per game and thrown for more than 233.5 passing yards in four different games. Getting Nico Collins back will help raise the ceiling of the offense, and Dallas ranking 27th in yards allowed will help the case.
Stroud is still on the shortlist of the best quarterbacks in the league and will prove so tonight. Expect this to be evident against a porous defense and for Stroud to have no problem building up an impressive statistical output. Count on the franchise QB to record more than 233.5 passing yards and for this to be the type of performance that has everyone viewing the Texans in a bit more serious light.
Rico Dowdle Less Than 56.5 Rushing Yards
The Cowboys have not gotten adequate production from the run game at any point this season. Overall, they rank 30th in rushing attempts, 31st in rushing yards, and 31st in rushing touchdowns. Ahead of this week’s contest, Mike McCarthy said Rico Dowdle has established himself as the primary running back for the team.
On the season as a whole, Dowdle has run the ball 83 times for 374 yards and has yet to produce a rushing touchdown. He is averaging 46.8 rushing yards per game and has only recorded more than 56.5 rushing yards in two of the eight games he played this season.
With the Cowboys likely to be playing from behind, don’t expect there to be much opportunity for carries. Dowdle is still effective as a pass-catcher and will make his impact felt in the game. But, the Cowboys offensive line is not what it once was and there will not be too many opportunities for the RB. Expect Dowdle to record less than 56.5 rushing yards in the matchup.
Joe Mixon More Than 112.5 Rushing & Receiving Yards
On the other side of the rushing attack, there is plenty of reason for optimism. While he has missed three games due to injury, Joe Mixon has been incredibly effective when healthy. The former Bengals standout has rushed the ball 176 times this season for 626 yards and four touchdowns. He also has added 159 receiving yards and a receiving touchdown.
The Dallas defense is bad across the board, but has especially struggled to stop the run. They rank 31st in both rushing touchdowns allowed and rushing yards given up. Dallas has allowed 100+ rushing yards in four consecutive games leading into this matchup, which should have Mixon licking his chops.
Mixon has recorded more than 112.5 yards from scrimmage in four of the seven games he has played in this season. He also has only been held below 90 yards once. With a struggling Dallas defense and the potential for Houston to attempt to eat away the clock, expect Mixon to be the beneficiary and record more than 112.5 combined rushing and receiving yards tonight.
Jalen Tolbert More Than 24.5 Receiving Yards
One of the more pleasant surprises on the Cowboys this season has been Jalen Tolbert taking a step forward. The third-year pass-catcher has already set a career-high in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns. He has registered three or more receptions in all but one game this season and stepped up for this Dallas team.
Tolbert is averaging 40.8 receiving yards per game this season and has recorded more than 24.5 yards through the air in six of the nine games he has played. CeeDee Lamb is expected to play, but is battling a back injury which could be aggravated if he is not careful. If he is limited, this would open the door for further opportunity for Tolbert.
Even if this is not the case, expect Tolbert to record more than 24.5 receiving yards in this one. It could take just one catch to reach this number and there should be plenty of opportunity with the Cowboys likely to be playing from behind.
What is DraftKings Pick6?
Pick6 is a peer-to-peer fantasy variant where you build a lineup (“Pick Set”) of at least two players and select whether you believe each will outperform their listed stat projection. Enter your Pick Set in Pick6 contests to compete against other users. Get enough picks correct and win a share of cash prizes.
How to Play DraftKings Pick6
Create a Pick Set
Create a Pick Set by choosing 2+ players from the same sport and Pick Group (a set of picks available from a group of set competitions). For each player, simply select if you think they’ll have more or less than their listed stat projection. In each Pick Set, you cannot pick the same player twice and you must select players from at least two different teams.
Enter an Amount
Once you finalize your Pick Set, choose your entry fee amount. Your entries will be automatically distributed into available contests, subject to your confirmation.
Sweat Your Picks
When the games go live, use the My Picks tab to follow your picks in real time to track how your players are performing against their projections and how they stack up against other users.
Compete for Prizes
Make enough correct picks and win a share of the contests’ guaranteed prizes. Any prizes won will be credited to your DraftKings account after contests are finalized.
Play at DraftKings Pick6 or by downloading the DraftKings Pick6 app on Apple or Google!
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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