There’s a specific Eagles system that fits well with a set of betting splits. We’ll get to that system in a bit. First, let’s get a handle on the Eagles vs. Commanders predictions already being made ahead of Thursday Night Football.
Below, you’ll find a breakdown of the moneyline, spread and game total betting splits for TNF based on Eagles vs. Commanders predictions made by bettors.
Game splits
Moneyline
The Eagles (-192) are the public play here. With 69% of the handle on 63% of the bets, they also have a sharp lean. Very straightforward.
Spread
This game’s spread has been fluctuating between 3-even and 3.5. There’s been no other deviation. That generally means the splits weigh more heavily. That’s still somewhat the case here, but also consider that we’re dealing with the key number of 3.
Philadelphia has seen 62% of the spread handle on 53% of the bets. Less of a public play and a larger sharp lean than the moneyline.
While the movement around the key number was worth noting, the small but significant fluctuations we’ve seen still track with the spread splits. Again, things are straightforward here.
Total
The game total topped out at 49.5 after opening at 49. It’s since bottomed out at 48.5, fluctuating between that mark and the opening number.
As for the predictions being made on the Eagles vs. Commanders game total, the over is both the public and sharp play. The over has seen 75% of the bets on 68% of the handle.
However, with such a significant lean in both handle and number of bets, it is odd to see the number dip to 48.5 instead of stay at 49.5 or increase further. We’re still operating in the same general range, which is important. But those splits should lead to more upward movement if anything.
Systems to note
The over is 12-9 in Philadelphia’s divisional games since 2021. In the six games vs. Washington during that span, the over is 4-2.
Seven of those 21 games have been prime-time matchups. The over is 5-2 in those games (2-0 in Eagles vs. Commanders meetings).
Trends to note
To close this preview out, here’s a look at active trends to note while casting your Eagles vs. Commanders predictions:
- The Commanders have given up the game’s first touchdown in the last 10 contests that they were the underdog.
- Washington has lost seven straight when playing as an underdog after a loss.
- Eagles have not covered in their last six games at Lincoln Financial Field.
- In the last eight games that they were underdogs following a loss, the Commanders have lost the first half. In that same setting, Washington has lost seven straight first quarters.
- Terry McLaurin has scored a touchdown in four straight road games.
- Brian Robinson has scored a touchdown in the last four games that he’s played where Washington was the underdog.
- McLaurin has 63-plus receiving yards in his last four games vs. Philadelphia. (Receiving yards O/U is 61.5.)
- McLaurin has 65-plus rushing yards in his last four games vs. NFC teams. (Rushing yards O/U is 47.5.)
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
