DK Metcalf is a physical freak, running the 40-yard dash in 4.33 seconds despite a 6-foot-3, 228-pound frame. His agility score, though, is in the fourth percentile, so the route tree has never been diverse. What he does well, though, he does incredibly well.
In five NFL seasons, Metcalf finished with a yards/reception over 15 three times, with a 16.9 mark for that metric last season. For perspective, there have been 200 players in the history of the NFL who have boasted at least 15 yards/reception, and only 111 with at least 16.9. Through seven games this season, Metcalf is at 16.2.
Metcalf has garnered at least 100 targets in every season with Seattle and has 61 this season in seven games. He’s finished with over 1,000 yards receiving three times and double-digit touchdowns twice.
But, there’s volatility to his game due to the high-risk, high-reward nature of deep passes. As a result, he has three 100+ yard games this season, but three games with fewer than 60 yards. He has received double-digit targets in three contests. In one of those games, he caught only three of 11 targets for 48 yards.
Wanna guess who that was against? Yup, the San Francisco 49ers, the upcoming Week 11 opponent for the Seahawks.
Early in his career, Metcalf had success against the 49ers. During his rookie season, he caught six of 10 targets for 70 yards in his first meeting with them. In the second meeting, he hauled in six of 12 targets for 81 yards and a touchdown. In the first game the following season, he had 12 receptions on 15 targets for 161 yards and two touchdowns.
That was the pinnacle, as it’s been mediocrity ever since.
In the eight games against San Francisco since his sophomore season, Metcalf has received double-digit targets just once. He has two touchdowns and has not exceeded 65 yards in any game. The 49ers have held Metcalf to fewer than 40 yards three times.
Metcalf is coming off an MCL sprain and still hasn’t been cleared yet for Week 11. Even if fully healthy, I’d feel comfortable fading Metcalf due to the 49ers familiarity with him.
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