The Jaguars start the week with the inside track for the top pick in the draft with their woeful 2-8 record and three-game losing streak. On Wednesday, coach Doug Pederson also ruled out Trevor Lawrence (shoulder) for another week, meaning Mac Jones ($4,900) will make his second start for the Jags. With Jones at QB, does either promising rookie WR Brian Thomas Jr. ($6,100) or veteran TE Evan Engram ($5,200) have fantasy value against the Lions?
Brian Thomas Jr.’s fantasy outlook
Thomas has been very impressive at times during his rookie season and definitely established himself as a big part of the Jaguars’ future. He has shown a good ceiling with over 21 fantasy points in three games this year, highlighted by 26.2 fantasy points in Week 5 vs. the Colts
The problem is that in each of the last two weeks, he has only had two catches, and he has five targets or fewer in four straight contets. He was only targeted three times by Jones in their Week 10 loss to the Vikings despite playing 86% of Jacksonville’s offensive snaps.
Thomas does have a good matchup vs. the Lions, who have given up the second-most DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers this season, but he’s still hard to trust with so little volume. I see him as a boom-or-bust WR3 this week and have him ranked outside my top 25 at the position.
Even Engram’s fantasy outlook
Engram was Jones’ favorite target in Week 10, leading the team in catches, targets and receiving yards on his way to 10.0 fantasy points. He only managed 40 yards on his six catches, but at least had the ball in his hands with opportunities most of the game.
He’s in a much tougher matchup, since the Lions usually lockdown tight ends, but he’s still a fringe starter based on that volume. If you have a better option, I don’t see Engram as a top-eight fantasy tight end with Jones at QB, but he’s viable due to the lack of overall depth at the position and his high-floor due to volume.
The Bottom Line
The Jaguars’ offense is very hard to trust as a whole with Jones at QB after looking very bad last week vs. the Vikings.
The Jaguars are 13-point underdogs on the road and are -110 to score under 16.5 points. Thomas is +255 to score a touchdown, and Engram is +245 to find the end zone.
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