After years of being the butt of jokes after a disastrous start to his career, Sam Darnold finally looked like he was on his way to being a bona fide starting quarterback in the NFL. Despite modern thinking, most superstar signal callers have been able to flash at least some signs of brilliance regardless of how dreadful their situation might be.
The peak example of this is young Andrew Luck, who continuously dragged a substandard Indianapolis attack to the postseason. A modern instance is Drake Maye, who has the worst targets and offensive line in the league but has managed a 2-3 record at the helm and has instantly elevated the New England offense. No matter how bad the situations were in New York and Carolina, Darnold didn’t show enough to warrant the keys to another franchise.
In Minnesota, Darnold was supposed to be a wily veteran backup to rookie J.J. McCarthy. When the Michigan product went down, Darnold inherited a team with an elite pass-catcher room, a Pro Bowl running back, and a top-ten offensive line, with an offensive guru calling plays. The 27-year-old had everything at his disposal to be successful—and he was.
The Vikings got off to a 5-0 start, in part due to a crippling defense but also because Darnold was playing out of his mind. During that stretch, he tossed for 11 touchdowns and just three interceptions, minimizing the disaster plays that plagued his younger self. Since? The club is 2-2, where Darnold has thrown six scores and six picks. Is this a rough patch, or has the 27-year-old finally regressed to his mean?
Is Sam Darnold still worth starting?
As I mentioned the first time I tackled this topic last month, any bad performance would immediately lead to analysts trying to discredit his accomplishments. Players who rise don’t get afforded the same leash as established standouts.
Darnold’s stretch is worse on tape than the numbers suggest—he constantly puts the rock in harm’s way. He’s regressed to being a lousy pocket manager, inept at feeling pressure and panicking when defenders barrel towards him. When his first read isn’t open, the entire offense deteriorates because he isn’t strong at scanning the field.
Quarterback play has been rough throughout the sport, and Darnold is far from rock bottom. He offers little stability, varying between slightly above average and costing his team games.
At best, he’s a fringe QB1 whose ceiling does not overcompensate for his dangerously low floor. The upcoming schedule is brutal, and these problems will only worsen. In DFS, he’s a budget choice dependent on matchup, but there are undoubtedly better value options. He can stay on the bench in deeper formats for now, but in standard leagues, it’s best to cut ties and go in a different direction. Darnold had his absurd stretch, and it’s best to move on now while he still has some cache.
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