The Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Rams will square off for the final matchup of Week 10 with neither team getting off to the start they desired.
The Los Angeles Rams enter with a 4-4 record but have won three consecutive games leading into this matchup. Overall this season they rank 18th in scoring, 17th in yards gained, 22nd in points allowed and 25th in yards given up. Injury issues have been prevalent with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua each missing some time. As difficult as the start was, the Rams are inching closer to getting back on track and this will be a big game for them if they want to continue.
Injuries have not been kind to Miami either as the Dolphins hit a full stop in offensive production after Tua Tagovailoa suffered another concussion, which was sustained in Week 2. They enter this game with a 2-6 record and uncharacteristically are dead last in scoring production. They now hold +500 odds of making the playoffs and their margin for error is nearly nonexistent.
The Rams enter this game as 2.5-point favorites and are -142 on the moneyline. The Dolphins are +120 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook and the game total is set at 48.5 for the matchup. With the stage fully set for Monday Night Football, here are four player props I like.
Tua Tagovailoa Over 247.5 Passing Yards (-115)
While the Dolphins’ offensive halt without Tagovailoa is surprising, it also speaks to the importance of the quarterback in the offense. When Miami is at its best, it involves quick passes with Tagovailoa getting the ball out of his hands quickly and allowing the team’s playmakers to make plays.
So far this season, Tagovailoa is averaging 237.0 passing yards per game. The opening game was the only matchup that the Dolphins’ signal-caller has eclipsed 247.5 in a game. However, Tagovailoa averaged 272.0 yards or greater in each of the past two seasons and this is a great opportunity for him to get on the right track.
The Rams rank 25th in yards allowed and 28th in passing yards given up so far this season. They are also 31st in net yards per pass attempt. Tagovailoa threw for over 247.5 yards in 10 of the 17 games last season. He is due to get back on the right track and has a porous defense that presents him with the opportunity. Expect Miami to return to its typical level of production and for Tagovailoa to clear 247.5 passing yards in this game. Don’t be surprised if this ends up being his best passing game of the season.
De’Von Achane Anytime TD (-110)
While there was a debate last season over who was the better running back between De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert, Achane has become the clear-cut top option. The 23-year-old has carried the ball 93 times this season compared to Mostert’s 55 attempts. While some of this has been due to injury, the production has been there for Achane.
Overall, he has run for 420 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Achane has had double-digit carries in all but one game this season and is averaging 52.5 yards per game. This is also a step back from last season, when he averaged 72.7 rushing yards per game, which has been much more about the Dolphins’ entire offense than Achane specifically. He also has added 37 receptions for 302 yards and three touchdowns through the air this season.
Los Angeles’ defense has been bad across the board and ranks 22nd in points allowed. Expect there to be plenty of opportunities for this Dolphins offense and for Achane to have the inside track on a rushing touchdown. Achane has tallied five total touchdowns this year which is a significant portion of the 12 the team has produced on offense. He also has tallied 14 carries in the red zone this season compared to the nine that Mostert has received. Look for Miami to get back on track offensively and for Achane to make his way into the end zone for the third time this season.
Tyreek Hill Longest Reception Over 26.5 Yards (-115)
The offensive struggles for the Dolphins have impacted Tyreek Hill as much as anyone. Through the first eight games, he has tallied just 34 receptions for 446 yards and a touchdown. After leading the NFL with 1,799 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns last season, he was held to 69 receiving yards or fewer each game without Tagovailoa.
This has been especially notable in the lack of big plays. Hill is a dynamic player who can take any short catch for a lengthy touchdown. Look for big plays to return to the Miami offense and for Hill to record a reception for over 26.5 yards in this game. He has taken a pass for over 26.5 yards in three of the four games he has played with Tagovailoa this season.
Whether it occurs on a screen pass where he outruns the defense or a deep shot from Tagovailoa, count on Tyreek Hill to record a big play. He looked like himself last week with Tagovailoa and tallied 130 receiving yards, including an 80-yard touchdown. Expect this to continue and for Hill to have a few opportunities to reach this number.
Kyren Williams Over 85.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Kyren Williams has been one of the better stories across the NFL this season. The Notre Dame product is tied for fourth in the NFL in carries this season. He has tallied 161 rush attempts for 602 yards and eight touchdowns. Williams has also found the end zone in each of the past six weeks.
Looking at this matchup, the Rams rank 25th in rushing yards allowed. Williams has averaged 75.3 rushing yards per game but has recorded over 85.5 rushing yards in four of the eight games. He has also carried the ball 21 or more times in each of the past four weeks and averaged 95.3 rushing yards per game across the 12 games he played last season.
Expect Williams’ fingerprints to be all over this game and for the Rams to put the ball in his hands plenty. He has proven capable of being the bellcow running back and should see his usual double-digit carries. Count on him to capitalize on the primetime spotlight and continue building his case as one of the best running backs in the NFL.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
