Bubble Watch, Feb. 28: Who’s in, who’s out of NCAA Tournament for March Madness Bracketology

As we approach the final few weeks of the 2023-24 college basketball regular season, the NCAA Tournament bracket looms large for every team. While some, like UConn and Purdue, have effectively locked in a spot come March, others are right on the bubble. When every game matters, the pressure is on. We take a look at how Saturday’s games affected bubble teams’ chances to go dancing next month.

For reference where teams currently stand in the eyes of bracketology experts, we’ll use the latest brackets of Dominic Lese of Bracketometry.com and Joe Lunardi of ESPN.

Home team in italics

Notre Dame 70, Wake Forest 65

Rolls up newspaper

No Wake, bad. Bad Demon Deacon. You got the signature win you needed on Saturday! You played your way onto the right side of the bubble! We had 72 hours of court storming discourse because of you! And what do you? Follow it up with a hideous Quad 3 loss to the 13th place team in the ACC. Back to the bubble abyss you go.

Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and Clemson are what’s left on Wake Forest’s regular season schedule and that’s not going to be enough to impress the NCAA Tournament selection committee. The Deacs are going to need a deep run in the ACC tourney.

Kentucky 91, Mississippi State 89

Mississippi State was up by nine in the second half and couldn’t finish the job against Kentucky on Tuesday. With the game tied in the final minute, a Reed Sheppard jumper in the closing seconds is what allowed the Wildcats to escape Starkville alive.

That ended a five-game win streak for the Bulldogs and that loss shouldn’t hurt their NCAA Tournament chances. MSU is floating right above the bubble in the eyes of bracket experts and games against Auburn, Texas A&M, and South Carolina is what’s left on its regular season slate. Take at least two of those games and the team should be straight.

Villanova 75, Georgetown 47

Georgetown is a “get right” game for every team in the Big East not named DePaul and after getting clobbered by UConn on Saturday, Villanova need a dominant win like the won it got on Tuesday. However, beating down a cellar dweller won’t move the needle for the Wildcats as they are still on the outside looking in. Providence, Seton Hall, and Creighton are what’s left on the docket at that will be the test of if they can get off the bubble.

Clemson 69, Pitt 62

Clemson was able to pick up a Quad 2 win at home on Tuesday and the Tigers are looking dangerous as they’ve won six of their last seven ballgames. On Pitt’s end, this was its last chance to pick up another Quad 1 victory in the regular season and the team couldn’t get it done. The Panthers may have to run the table through the NCAA Tournament to get into the NCAA’s.

UNLV 75, Wyoming 69

UNLV avoided what would’ve been a really bad loss by picking up a road victory over Wyoming. The Runnin’ Rebels are trying to play their way onto the bubble and they can point to their five Quad 1 wins and a tough slate in the Mountain West Conference as reason for some consideration. They’ll most like have to win the league tournament to make the big dance, but it can still beef up its resume with games against San Diego State and Nevada coming up.

Nevada 77, Colorado State 74

You can lock the Wolfpack for the third weekend in March, and if you’re a Colorado State now you’ve still got some work to do even though you’re still very good as of now. The Rams superstar super senior Isaiah Stevens (23 points on 9-15 shooting, six assists, five rebounds) might be the MWC Player of the Year, and he made a midrange jumper to tie it with two seconds remaining.

But then Jarod Lucas hit one of the shots of the season in college basketball. A pure buzzer beater from beyond half court to win it.

Lucas missed three of four free throws in the final 18 seconds to let CSU back into it, and that is a fact not many people will remember. Another MWC classic in a season filled with them.