Unabated is an industry leader in real-time betting data and profitable sports betting tools. For the NBA season, they created the industry’s first-ever Conditional Projections. Every day, the Unabated NBA team creates projection sets for different scenarios based upon which key players are Questionable on the injury report with massive potential ramifications on the slate.
If you’ve played an NBA slate as a DFS player or prop bettor, you know the deal with the NBA: The injuries are everything. A minute here or there can be the difference between good chalk and bad chalk, quality value or lineup-ruining value, or an over/under winning or losing by the hook.
Every day we have dozens of players marked as Questionable up until game time with their statuses often impacting the edges or microedges you can have. A couple of times each week here on DraftKings Network, I get to bring you the latest news and information on a few of the players who seem most noteworthy in Unabated’s Conditional NBA Projections.
The Unabated NBA team, led by industry veteran Justin Phan, currently projects Giannis Antetokounmpo to have a 50/50 chance of playing tonight at Cleveland.
Giannis has, as always, been a monster to start the year with a 34% usage rate and 37.2% assist rate. As a result, an 11/4 Giannis injury absence — as well as the ongoing one for Khris Middleton — would open up a lot of potential production for the remaining Bucks as they fight to improve an unlucky 1-5 record.
If Giannis plays with his strained right adductor, he projects for 27.1 points, 11.2 rebounds and 6.4 assists.
If Giannis were to miss the game, he’d make the following impact on some of his frontcourt teammates’ projections:
- Brook Lopez projects for 13 points, 6.0 rebounds and 1.8 assists (With Giannis, he projects for 12.8 points, 5.1 rebounds and 1.7 assists)
- Bobby Portis projects for 19.7 points, 11.5 rebounds and 2.2 assists (With Giannis, he projects for 12.6 points, 7.9 rebounds and 1.1 assists)
There’s a lot of potential upside for Portis in particular. Portis has a 25.2% usage rate over the last season with Giannis and Middleton off the floor, which is a notable increase from his 22.6% usage rate so far this season. Portis’ rebound rate also goes up to 19.7% from 16.8% and his assist rate increases from 6.5% to 10.5%.
Giannis’ status has a huge potential impact on Damian Lillard as well. Lillard stands to dominate the ball more with a 34.1% usage rate without Giannis and Middleton compared to a 28.3% usage so far this season. While his rebound rate is not improved, his assist rate also jumps from 29.7% to 34.2%. Lillard produces 1.4 DK points per minute in court time without his fellow Bucks stars.
See all of the Conditional Projections for tonight’s slate along with live news updates and premium content on Unabated NBA. Start now with promo code SPLASH to get $30 off as a special thank you to DraftKings Network readers.
