College basketball has arrived! The ball gets rolling on Monday night with a monster slate of games, including a couple of heavyweight matchups — most notably a top-10 matchup in Spokane, as Baylor travels to Gonzaga. With so many moving parts and so many teams in the country, betting college hoops out of the gate can be a little tricky. I’ve been starting poorly with my bets in pretty much all sports before picking up any momentum, so I’m really going to be taking things slow out of the gates.
I’m going to write up some of the bigger games today with some analysis and leans. I may wind up on some very small plays, but for the most part, I’ll just be giving early leans and hopefully getting you guys some helpful breakdowns on the games while we learn who all these teams are. That said, for an opening week of college basketball, we have some pretty good games that we’ll touch on this week, including one on Friday night that I am interested in betting.
For now, here’s a look at some of the top matchups on Monday night.
Texas A&M -4.5 (-108) at UCF
This is a true road game against decent competition to start the season for the Aggies, so it has a bit of a “trappy” feel here at a short number. While an SEC contender would typically start the season at home against lesser competition, Buzz Williams is challenging his team early. A&M is a legitimate Top-25 team, and could flirt with the Top-10 if it plays to its ceiling.
The Aggies added some decent talent to offset their key loss of Tyrece Radford, and return some experienced pieces — most notably Wade Taylor IV, who has twice been First-Team SEC. Having that type of point guard experience can really help a team out of the gates. Williams also challenged his team by scrimmaging against Houston in the preseason. While they lost to a national contender, that type of scrimmage can really help a team prepare.
UCF returns a couple of solid scorers, but doesn’t have much depth. Outside of home court advantage, almost every edge points to the Aggies here. Lean to Texas A&M here.
Texas vs. Ohio State (+120) ML (Las Vegas)
Texas is the ranked team here, but I’m not so sure the poll is correct on this one. The Longhorns lost a ton of talent off last year’s roster in Dylan Disu, Tyrese Hunter, Max Abmas, Dillon Mitchell, Brock Cunningham and Ithiel Horton. That’s an insane amount of production to replace, and all the unfamiliarities can make it difficult to gel early in the season. Rather than a layup to start the season, Texas faces an Ohio State team that ended last season red-hot.
The Buckeyes turned their season around by making a coaching change in-season, and Jake Diebler wound up going 8-3. While some key pieces do depart, there’s a good mix of returning talent and incoming talent from the transfer portal and recruiting class. Ohio State did lose its scrimmage to a Top-25 Cincinnati team, but at least tested itself early. Texas had less competitive scrimmages early against TCU and Colorado.
I feel the Buckeyes are the more prepared team here and have more overall talent. Watch for the upset on a neutral floor in Las Vegas.
Baylor +6.5 (-108) at Gonzaga
This is the big boy matchup of the day, with a pair of Top-10 teams tipping off late night in Spokane. Both of these teams are Final Four good, so tip of the cap to Baylor for taking a serious road challenge this early in the season.
I think Baylor can ultimately be the better team this season, but there are some major factors in this game. Gonzaga returns a majority of its core from last season, with Anton Watson the only impactful loss (aside from Steele Ventures suffering another season-ending injury, but he was also out all of last season). That chemistry can be key early in the season. Combine that with the home environment the Zags will have and the late tip, and the spot it strong for the Bulldogs.
That said, I do feel Baylor has the better collection of talent. The Bears lost a lot off last year’s roster, but replaced it all with high-end talent. We know it takes time to come together, though, so we’ll see how Scott Drew has his team playing out of the gates. This game touched as low at Gonzaga -3, so with it shooting up to 6.5, I think it’s just a few too many points for what should be a good battle.
Ultimately, I do trust Baylor’s veteran backcourt of Jayden Nunn and Jeremy Roach (Duke transfer) to keep the Bears in this game. If you want to take a side, it feels like too many points with where the line has shifted.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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