Welcome to this edition of the DraftKings NFL DFS Edge Check! This week we are going to be using the Contest Simulations over at Paydirtdfs.com to take a look at each position and highlight some of the most undervalued options based on the sim results. This process involves utilizing ownership projections and projection distributions and simulating contest outcomes to better understand how valuable a player really is in different field sizes.
We are going to break down the top overall edges which gives us plays to focus on. If you want to see the players that appear to be overvalued that will hurt you in GPPs, check out the full Contest Sims on the site. If you use the code DKNATION at checkout on a monthly subscription you’ll get 25% off your first month!
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QB Edge Distributions
The top of the QB edges offered goes to Lamar Jackson ($8,000) and Josh Allen ($7,700) followed by a considerable drop in salary to Daniel Jones ($5,200). All three of these options are in the 5%+ range in terms of edge offered and have 10%+ exposure in winning lineups from the simulations. I think with the way the slate is set up it makes sense to pay down at QB (we will talk about salary allocation later), but there is enough WR value to make either of Lamar/Allen work here. Still, Daniel Jones with Malik Nabers as a base pairing is a really sharp way to get started for large fields.
The biggest negative value for QB this week goes to Geno Smith ($5,800) by a considerable margin. For some reason he is projecting for 12% ownership? Both the models and the contest sims view that as silly. You can make much better decisions with basically any other QB this week.
RB Edge Distributions
There is a wide range of options here from salary to ownership to upside.
The top name on this list, Alvin Kamara ($7,800), is one of those great examples of a player who is high owned not having enough ownership. His positive edge offered of +7.07% on top of his projected 18.23% ownership just shows that he is a very valuable option even relative to his popularity. Even if ownership projections are low on him he could be in the 30% range and still be a strong play thanks to positive edges offered at other positions and high exposure rates in winning lineups.
Tyrone Tracy ($5,500) is on the other side of this coin. His positive edge is 5.81%, a good benchmark, while his projected ownership is less than half of that. He’s someone who is a bit more fragile, and if he gets steamed you would want to get away from him. However, with a cheap pricetag and a good exposure rate in winning simulations we should look to have him in our player pool.
You’ll notice that Chase Brown ($5,900) is not in the top edges offered, so keep that in mind when you are building out your lineups considering he will be one of the most popular options on the slate!
WR Edge Distributions
Cedric Tillman ($4,300) making another appearance at the top of the values for the models, you love to see it. He’s projected to be one of the more popular options on the slate at 20% (and climbing), but similarly to Alvin Kamara it’s just not as much as deserved. He shows up in winning lineups from the sims 28% of the time, giving him a cushion of optimality of 8.35%. He didn’t get near the price raise he deserved after nuking in Week 8, so we have to go back to the well. He is a lock and load in the vast majority of lineups.
The other really interesting names on this list for me are Jalen Coker ($3,600) and Jakobi Meyers ($5,300). They have positive edges offered of +4.53% and +4.06%, respectively, and make for really strong GPP options. If you build out a lineup that has Coker and Tillman in it, you have basically unlimited salary to utilize for RB and TE, both of which are expensive positions in Week 9.
There are two WRs projected for 20%+ ownership this week that carry heavy negative edge numbers in the contest sims. You’ll want to check out the full Contest Sims on the site to see who you should fade!
TE Edge Distributions
This is a pretty interesting week from the contest sims for TE. We have a handful of cheap options (Jonnu Smith ($3,500), Juwan Johnson ($3,200), and Mike Gesicki ($3,100), while also having some upside plays from Sam LaPorta ($4,800) and Evan Engram ($5,300).
Of the choices on this list my favorite option is Evan Engram. His positive edge offered is +2.23% on a nominal 5.70% exposure rate in winning simulations, but I think that it’s very likely he stays at or below that 5% mark when the cards flip on Sunday. His median projection in the Paydirt Range of Outcomes model is 15.50, which is very strong for a tight end and is similar to the medians for James Conner ($6,600) and Terry McLaurin ($7,000). I view him more as a flex play than a TE this week and think that two-TE builds are very strong. If you pair Engram with one of the cheaper TE options on the slate (Gesicki / Engram makes a lot of sense) you end up with a great source of both salary savings and upside.
Overall Thoughts on the Sims
From what the sims are telling me, this is what I gather: You should be happy to pay up at RB, down at WR, and play two-TE builds. I think that QB decisions are pretty binary and mostly dependent on what you are doing with your RBs. If you are playing Alvin Kamara, you are likely running down to Daniel Jones. If you are happy to play two mid-range RBs like Tyrone Tracy and Chase Brown, you can likely afford to jump to Lamar Jackson. It’s a week where I find that deciding on the RB position is more indicative of your overall build than your stack, which is a bit weird!
The WR position mostly just speaks to value. Guys like Cedric Tillman and Jalen Coker are going to be staples in cash games and make for really strong salary relief options as both one-offs and stacking pieces. With the edge that they are offering you can afford to eat some negative edge elsewhere, which gives you a lot of flexibility. Likewise, their salaries allow you to go expensive at both RB and TE, which I think is necessary this slate.
However you cut it, the contest sims at Paydirt have a lot of interesting fades as well that can give you relative value on the field without ever considering positive value at all. You’ll want to check those out!
Good luck and go grab some trophies. And remember, If you use the code DKNATION at checkout on a monthly subscription you’ll get 25% off your first month!
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Multichem) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.