While the Dodgers were slight favorites coming into the World Series, I don’t think anyone envisioned a sweep between these two powerhouse organizations — two powerhouse organizations that were statistically so similar throughout the regular season. Yet here we are. It’s Game 4 and Los Angeles has a commanding 3-0 lead over New York.
Can the Yankees extend the series on Tuesday? Can Aaron Judge ($9,600) break out of his slump? Can you think about using Shohei Ohtani ($10,000) in your lineups with his arm in a sling?
Let’s break it all down from a Showdown perspective.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $111K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st] (LAD @ NYY)
SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Pick
Freddie Freeman ($12,000 CP) – Let’s sort through all the negatives to Freeman’s viability as your Captain right off the hop. Yes, as the front-runner for World Series MVP, Freeman is going to be popular. Yes, the likelihood of the veteran hitting a home run in a fourth straight contest is pretty low. Still, Freeman’s price tag has not caught up with his heroics from the past three games — nor does it reflect the improved health of his ankle. After going without an extra-base hit for the entirety of the NLDS and NLCS, all four of Freeman’s hits against the Yankees have risen his ISO. He’s also left-handed and LHBs are the way you need to attack Luis Gil ($10,800). In fact, RHBs hit just .170 off of Gil during the regular season, which was the lowest mark of any qualified American League pitcher. Lefties also struck out far less often when facing New York’s rookie starter.
UTIL Plays
Giancarlo Stanton ($9,000) – There’s been a lot of talk in the last 12 hours about the possibility of the Yankees changing their lineup heading into a do-or-die Game 4. Stanton’s already hitting clean-up for New York, so there isn’t much value that could be added by a shift, but I do think there’s at least a chance that Stanton gets moved ahead of the struggling Judge. It’s something to keep an eye on. Other than that, Stanton’s viability is tied completely to his torrid results so far in the postseason. In 52 plate appearances, the veteran slugger is slashing .298/.365/.745 with a 205 wRC+. When we’re talking about DFS potential and ceiling, few assets come with a higher one than Stanton.
Max Muncy ($7,600) – Let’s continue with the theme of left-handed Dodgers bats, shall we? Muncy has been the complete opposite of the aforementioned Freeman. Where Muncy could not be retired in the NLCS against the Mets, he’s yet to get a hit in the World Series. My hope is that suppresses his ownership on Tuesday night. The 34-year-old was the epitome of a platoon bat throughout the regular season, posting an .891 OPS and a 145 wRC+ off of right-handed pitching. Really, my only actual concern here is whether Muncy’s elite eye at the plate limits his upside. Muncy’s career 15.0% walk rate is the third-highest of any active qualified player. Meanwhile, Gil led all pitchers with at least 150 innings in walk rate in 2024 (12.1%). It’s really not a question of if Muncy draws a free pass tonight, but when.
Ben Casparius ($4,000) – Casparius the friendly ghost. It is almost Halloween, after all. Honestly, Casparius has sort of seemed like a ghost so far in this World Series, as he has yet to appear in a game. However, we did see the rookie RHP get work in both of the Dodgers’ bullpen games in the NLCS. There’s a few things to like about the 25-year-old as it pertains to this single-game slate. First and foremost, he cheap and he’s a relatively unknown name. Secondly, Casparius has shown the ability to generate a ton of strikeouts. Across 88.2 innings of work in the minors this season, Casparius struck out 106 opponents. He then managed a 32.4% strikeout rate in his three appearances with Los Angeles towards the tail end of the regular season. Finally, Casparius was a starter in Triple-A, so he has the ability to pitch multiple innings. I think Dave Roberts will give him an extended look in Game 4.
Fades
Luis Gil ($10,800) – I can’t do it. While it’s almost a certainty that Gil throws the most innings of any pitcher to appear in this contest, the risk is too great to spend this much. It doesn’t help Gil’s case that he’s already not exactly known as an innings eater. Due mostly to his inflated walk rate, Gil averaged a robust 17.6 pitches per inning during the regular season. As such, he only threw six complete innings in 10 of his 29 starts. Now factor in the shortest of short leashes that come with it being an elimination game in the World Series, and you can see where Gil’s projected volume might be a red flag. Let’s also not forget that this Dodgers lineup led baseball in ISO (.189), wOBA (.337) and wRC+ (118) in 2024. This isn’t an easy matchup.
THE OUTCOME
All the momentum is in the Dodgers’ dugout, and while on paper it could seem like Los Angeles is at a disadvantage with a bullpen game scheduled for Tuesday, I have a feeling we’ll be seeing just as many relievers coming out of the Yankees’ pen. If that’s the case, I have to side with the team that’s actually been hitting the last three games. As much as it pains me to say goodbye, the MLB season ends tonight.
Final Score: Dodgers 5, Yankees 3
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $111K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st] (LAD @ NYY)
The Crown Is Yours: Sign up for DraftKings and experience the ultimate host for games and betting experiences!
For sports betting, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DK Sportsbook app.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
