A week into the NBA regular season, the dust is starting to settle on the roles and rotations for all 30 teams. However, with just four games tonight, figuring out who will exceed or fall short of expectations is easier said than done. Here are three player props that I’m targeting for Tuesday.
Kyrie Irving over 4.5 assists (+105)
Kyrie Irving’s career renaissance in Dallas can be attributed to a number of factors, none bigger than the guard’s willingness to play Robin to Luka Doncic’s Batman. However, the former All-Star is still an excellent creator, even if he’s playing off-ball more than any other point in his career. He averaged 5.2 assists per game last season, well in line with his career average (5.7).
In a Western Conference Finals rematch, expect Irving to be the engine that gets Dallas’ offense going. So far this year, he’s already cleared this assist total in two of three games. With the Timberwolves’ stellar defense prioritizing Doncic, there will be room for Kyrie to work, especially with a floor-spacer like Klay Thompson in the lineup. Although this line isn’t a guarantee by any means, it’s great value at +105.
Christian Braun over 9.5 points (-120)
Despite a lackluster 1-2 start, the Nuggets have to be encouraged by the development of Christian Braun. The former Kansas Jayhawk has thrived as a member of the starting five, posting a three-game stat line of 14.7 points, 6.0 rebounds, and a combined 3.0 blocks and steals. Perhaps the most important number is Braun’s 34.3 minutes per game; Denver’s thin bench has ensured a large workload for all of their starters.
After playing an overtime game on Monday, the Nuggets will finish up their back-to-back in Brooklyn. While Denver should find a way to beat the Nets, the rest disparity between these two teams could keep the game close. So far, Braun has taken an average of more than 10 field goal attempts per game. I’d expect that shot volume to continue against a weak defensive opponent on Tuesday. The price here is high, but it’s for a good reason- this is a total that Braun could hit before the start of the fourth quarter.
Zion Williamson under 22.5 points (-110)
It’s been a messy start to the season for Zion Williamson. In two games against the Trail Blazers, New Orleans’ star has put up 15 points per game on an atrocious 25.9% from the field. Normally, this would be the perfect buy-low spot for an All-NBA talent, but a date with the Warriors isn’t exactly ideal.
Going back to the start of the 2021-22 season, Williamson has averaged just 17.8 points in five matchups with Golden State, well below his career mark of 24.6 PPG. Much of the difficulty in playing the Dubs is due to Draymond Green. The former defensive player of the year is the perfect Zion-stopper: mobile, but still big enough to protect the rim. Williamson was already struggling to hit a shot; this matchup does him no favors.
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