Last season, Jake Ferguson garnered 102 targets, the seventh-most for tight ends. There were ten games he received at least seven targets with two in double digits. Ferguson converted those into 71 receptions for 761 yards, five touchdowns and 40 first downs.
Through six weeks this season, Ferguson has 34 targets, tied with Jalen Tolbert for the second-most on the team. He did miss Week 2 with a knee sprain, but was peppered with 11, seven and seven targets when he returned to action in Week 3. Last week, though, Ferguson only received four targets, although two were in the red zone.
Ferguson hasn’t caught a touchdown yet this season, but it’s only a matter of time. Many of the metrics are similar to last season’s campaign. The yards per route is identical at 1.6. The target and catch rates are both higher, but the average yards per target is lower by 0.3.
The 49ers’ pass defense has been good, as usual. The unit is allowing the 10th-lowest Pass EPA. While the rush defense hasn’t been great, the Cowboys rush offense is decrepit. As a result, Dallas has the second-highest pass rate in the league.
The main issue for this game is that the Cowboys rush defense is the absolute worst in the league, and the 49ers are going to want to ground-and-pound, especially with all the injuries in their receiving core. That could shorten the game a bit.
That said, this game has a healthy total of 47, so points will likely be scored from both sides. And those will come through the air for Dallas.
Start or sit? Start.
Much of the focus will be on CeeDee Lamb, rightfully so, but there should be plenty of opportunities for Ferguson to make plays, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he finally hits paydirt.
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