This is a new article here on DK Network to hopefully give the bettors a look behind the book at the most heavily bet NBA player props of the night by ticket count. It indicates which props bettors are most interested in for that slate of games, and I’ll try and offer some analysis as to why (or analysis as to why you should be careful). Please keep in mind that betting the NBA is an ever-changing market, and that injury news closer to tip could always take one of these players off the board, or change other props that become more heavily bet close to tipoff.
Andre Drummond OVER 13.5 Rebounds (-135)
I feel like this being the highest ticket count of any NBA prop is trolling me. I was on Drummond’s rebound over on Wednesday, and after ripping down seven rebounds in the first eight minutes of the game, he still couldn’t cash his over (including a late state correction to bring him from 14 to 13 boards). That said, Drummond averaged just shy of 18 rebounds in his 10 starts last season, and will face a poor Raptors squad.
LaMelo Ball OVER 7.5 Assists (-140)
Ball nearly ripped off a triple-double in the comeback victory over the Rockets on Wednesday, finishing with 11 assists in 38 minutes. This one makes sense, as bettors see the number being too low against a fast paced Atlanta team that doesn’t play a ton of defense.
Paolo Banchero OVER 24.5 Points (-120)
Banchero went off for 33 points in just 31 minutes in a win over the Heat, so it makes sense why bettors are chasing his over against the Nets. But with a double digit spread, we have a blowout to keep in mind here. Be careful with this one.
Ja Morant OVER 6.5 Assists (-120)
This is the most interesting prop movement of the night in my mind. In this article on Wednesday, Morant to go under 7.5 assists was one of the most bet props at plus-money. Despite all the tickets, the prop rose to 8.5, yet was heavily juiced to the under. morant, who averaged 8.1 assists over the previous two seasons, dished out 10 dimes in the opener against Utah. Despite all the production in the assists department, his prop now drops all the way to 6.5 against the very Houston team that Ball dished out 11 dimes against? Somewhat fishy, but I’ll buy in here and make this one a play at this number: Ja Morant OVER 6.5 Assists (-120) – 1-unit.
Lauri Markkanen OVER 23.5 Points (-115)
Another one that makes a lot of sense here, with bettors putting a ton of stock into what we saw in the opening games. Markkanen dropped 35 points on Memphis on Wednesday, and now faces a Warriors team that lacks size to defend him. Just be cautious that his prop is up a full two points off just one great performance. This is buying high on him.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
