The Vikings will look to bounce-back from their first loss off the season, heading to Los Angeles for TNF. While public money is piling on Minnesota, the Rams seem to be taking sharper wagers, leading to a bit of reverse line movement. I’ll stay away from a side and go to a prop that I think is set too low for this matchup.
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams
Aaron Jones OVER 67.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
1.5-units
Outside of the short week, this is a perfect matchup for Jones to thrive in. If we remove the London game against the Jets in which Jones was hurt both during pregame warm ups and in the game itself, Jones has well exceeded this number in four of five games. The only time he was held in check was during a tough matchup against the 49ers in Week 2.
In his four other games, Jones has carried for at least 93 yards, including this past Sunday against a Detroit run defense that ranks among the league’s elite. Enter the Rams, who rank 30th in the NFL, surrendering over 150 yards per game on the ground. The Raiders, who have the third-fewest rushing yards in the NFL, were able to gash the Rams for 105 yards on 26 carries by running backs this past Sunday.
This TNF matchup is shaping up to have a ton of public money on the Vikings, with more professionals on the Rams. I’m going to stay away from a side and just back what I feel is the biggest weakness that can be exploited in this game — the Rams’ run defense.
Look for Jones to continue his strong play. Given that Jones has blown past this number in four of his five healthy games, I am fine playing the number into the mid-70’s, and even playing some plus-money alternates at higher numbers if you prefer.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook, lines and odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
