The 5-1 Vikings will look to continue their hot start in Los Angeles when they battle the 2-4 Rams on Thursday Night Football. Minnesota enters the contest as a 2.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 48 points on DraftKings Sportsbook.
As is always the case, getting Justin Jefferson involved will be the key to any Vikings victory. The superstar wideout has gotten off to a blistering start in 2024. He’s accumulated 531 receiving yards, fifth-most in the NFL, along with five touchdown catches. Despite offseason concerns over his connection with new quarterback Sam Darnold, the pair have shown excellent chemistry through six games.
Even with his massive production this season, Jefferson hasn’t garnered an insane amount of attention from Darnold. His 8.5 targets per game aren’t anything to sneeze at, but it’s only the 13th-highest average in the NFL. Still, that number is somewhat misleading, as Minnesota’s double-digit leads against several opponents has allowed it to run the ball in the second half. This is backed up by Jefferson’s league-leading 31.6% target share.
Ultimately, the most important part of JJ’s success has been maximizing touches, as he’s posted a career-best mark of 16.1 yards per reception. This week, that big play ability could come in handy. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, the Rams have allowed 1.1% CPOE (completion percentage over expected) and 8.0 pass EPA, the tenth-highest marks in football. They’ve also surrendered 7.9 yards per attempt, the fourth-most in the NFL. Currently, Darnold is tied for the fourth-highest yards per pass attempt (8.4 Y/A). All of those statistics point to a massive catch or two brewing for Jefferson on Thursday night.
Against Los Angeles’ vulnerable secondary, I’d feel good about playing Jefferson over 84.5 receiving yards and Jefferson longest reception over 27.5 yards at -115 each.
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