Week 8. It’s time to be Tony the Tiger “Greeeeeeaaaattttt!!” My heart goes out to those who live in a DFS-forbidden state. That truly makes me irate, but I have no doubt that the love is strong to induce travel across the interstate. Let us open the gate and see what players lie in wait, with arms wide open, ready to determine our fate. We pick and choose the ones we highly rate. Throw them all on a plate. Then we debate and determine if the pros or cons have more weight, discarding the ones we hate. Hopefully the ones we go overweight allow us to skate over all the mines laying in wait, propelling us swiftly through the strait, where binks bling like the skyscrapers in Kuwait.
There are 13 games on the main slate. DraftKings Sportsbook has seven games with an O/U of at least 45: TEN/DET (46), GB/JAX (51), IND/HOU (46.5), PHI/CIN (47.5), ARI/MIA (47.5), ATL/TB (46) and BUF/SEA (47.5). There is one game with a total of 40 or below: NO/LAC (39.5).
There are two double-digit spread favorites: DET -11 over TEN and KC -10 over LVR. There are five games within a field goal: CIN -2.5 over PHI, MIA -3 over ARI, ATL -2.5 over TB, BUF -3 over SEA and CHI -2.5 over WAS. There are seven home dogs: JAX, CLE, NE, TB, SEA LVR and WAS.
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Quarterback
Stud
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns ($8,000) – Jackson has the highest floor/ceiling on the slate. He checks every box. Gamescript-proof? Affirmative, as he’s attempted over 40 passes in shootouts. He also has two games with fewer than 20 pass attempts, yet he still put up over 20 FPTS in those contests. Jackson has thrown for a touchdown in every game with only two interceptions on the season. He has two games with four and five passing touchdowns respectively. Shoot, we haven’t even gotten to his prowess on the ground, as he’s rushed for at least 40 yards in every contest, has two rushing touchdowns and went for 122 yards in the season opener. Jackson has scored at least 17 FPTS in every contest, with six of those over 20 and two over 35.
Other Options – Josh Allen ($7,800), Jalen Hurts ($7,500), Jordan Love ($7,100), Joe Burrow ($7,000), Baker Mayfield ($6,700)
Value
Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens ($5,200) – It hasn’t officially been announced yet, but with Deshaun Watson done for the season and Dorian Thompson-Robinson suffering an injury in Week 7, this may very well be the Winston show. Grab them crab legs and start licking your fingers because things are about to get messy. We just don’t know for which side yet. Winston definitely isn’t shy pushing the ball down the field and threw for 5,109 yards and 33 touchdowns in 2019. However, that also came with 30 interceptions. The Ravens are more than likely going to score points in this one and their run defense is one of the best in the league, so the path of least resistance is through the air. And you best believe that Winston is licking them fingers right about now. On the season, the Ravens’ pass defense has allowed the fourth-highest Pass EPA and has given up over 350 yards passing in two of the last three games. There is no middle ground here. Either Winston throws three touchdowns or gets picked off three times, so understand the chasm in the range of outcomes before clicking.
Other Options – Caleb Williams ($6,000), Bo Nix ($5,600), Mason Rudolph ($4,400) if he starts
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Running Back
Stud
De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins vs. Arizona Cardinals ($6,200) – There are some really nice options at the top range, so roster construction and projected ownership numbers are going to play a big part as the week progresses. As of now, I like the price and upside of Achane, especially if Tua Tagovailoa returns. Obviously, if Tua is out, then eject from the cockpit and abort the mission. We know the massive upside that Achane has, as he had four games over 30 FPTS last season, which included a 45.2 and 54.3 game. He started this season with 23 and 29.5 FPTS. Achane is not going to dominate the carries, as Raheem Mostert is back, but Achane will still be a factor on the ground. It’s his involvement in the passing game that is most alluring, though. He received seven targets in both of the first two games and Achane can take it the house on any given play.
Other Options – Saquon Barkley ($8,300), Derrick Henry ($8,100), Kenneth Walker III ($7,800), Joe Mixon ($7,700), Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,400), Bijan Robinson ($7,200), D’Andre Swift ($6,200)
Value
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons ($5,700) – White had a 70/30 snap share over Bucky Irving to start the season, but that came down to 50/35 in Week 7. That said, White still had two red-zone looks and received six targets, compared to three for Irving. This game has a healthy total of 46 points, so points will likely be scored. In addition, with Chris Godwin lost for the season and Mike Evans unlikely to play, White could see an elevated role in the passing game.
Other Options – Raheem Mostert ($5,900), Bucky Irving ($5,800)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins vs. Arizona Cardinals ($7,000) – Tua for MVP? Fine. After throwing for 319 yards in the opener, the Bills limited him to 212 yards and knocked him out of the game and for the next five weeks. During that span, the Dolphins failed to score more than 12 points in any contest. Gross. I’m going under the assumption that Tua is playing. If he’s not, then you know what to do. Press the red button to eject. That said, if he’s out there, I have a ton of confidence in the entire offense, especially since the matchup is a juicy one, as the Cardinals have allowed the third-highest Pass EPA, highest success rate and have the second-lowest pressure rate. Hill caught seven of 12 targets for 130 yards and a touchdown in the opener, good for 29 FPTS. He is $1,000 too cheap for the expected volume and increased efficiency with Tua back under center.
Other Options – Ja’Marr Chase ($8,500), Drake London ($7,200), Jayden Reed ($6,700), DJ Moore ($6,600), Tee Higgins ($6,500), Brian Thomas Jr. ($6,400)
Value
Cedric Tillman, Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens ($3,300) – There are a ton of low-priced receivers to choose from this week. Tillman caught eight of 12 targets for 81 yards in Week 7 and will likely be very popular this week. But those targets came from Dorian Thompson-Robinson. We expect Jameis Winston to play and don’t know who the apple of his eye is yet. Tillman is cheap enough and should get volume regardless, but if the projected ownership is too high, there are plenty of other options to pivot to. As it stands, the upside is high considering the price because Winston is likely to huck and chuck in this one.
Other Options – Amari Cooper ($6,000), Keenan Allen ($5,800), Darnell Mooney ($5,800), Romeo Doubs ($5,700), Keon Coleman ($5,600), Jaylen Waddle ($5,400), Dontayvion Wicks ($5,300), Christian Watson ($5,200), Rome Odunze ($5,100), Jerry Jeudy ($4,800), Rashod Bateman ($4,300), Jalen McMillan ($3,700), Trey Palmer ($3,500), Kalif Raymond ($3,400)
Tight End
Stud
Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals at Miami Dolphins ($5,500) – It’s tough not going with Brock Bowers, especially since he’s received 14, 10 and 12 targets over the last three games. But I think Steve Spagnuolo cooks up something to neuter him a bit. So, McBride it is, and he makes for an attractive McBridesmaid. This is why I get paid the big bucks. McBride has put up double-digit FPTS in three straight and has received at least six targets in every contest. With Tua back for Miami, I expect that offense to put up points, so Arizona will have to respond aggressively to keep up.
Other Options – Brock Bowers ($6,100), David Njoku ($5,100), Evan Engram ($5,000), Tucker Kraft ($4,600)
Value
Cade Otton, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons ($3,500) – Otton received 10 targets in Week 7 and turned those into eight receptions for 100 yards. With Mike Evans likely out and Chris Godwin done for the season, he should continue getting peppered with targets.
Other Options – Kyle Pitts ($4,400), Mark Andrews ($4,000), Hunter Henry ($3,800)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Broncos DST vs. Carolina Panthers ($3,700) – The Broncos DST has allowed the lowest Pass EPA by a wide margin. The unit is third in pressure rate and second in success rate. Raggedy Andy Dalton has thrown two interceptions in each of the last two games and totaled 93 yards in Week 7. Now he has to travel to Denver and face one of the best defenses in the league. Sometimes, though, good real-life defenses aren’t great for fantasy. Well, the Broncos DST has scored double-digit FPTS in five of seven games and just put up 20 in Week 7.
Other Options – Lions DST ($3,800), Ravens DST ($3,400), Texans DST ($3,100)
Value
Falcons DST at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($2,600) – The Falcons don’t have a great real-life or fantasy defense, but they did put up 17 in Week 4 against the Saints. This game could feature a lot of passing with a Buccaneers side that could be missing their top-two wide receivers.
Other Options – Buccaneers DST ($2,800), Bears DST ($2,700) if Daniels is out, Falcons DST ($2,600)
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
