There are plenty of storylines heading into the Week 7 matchup on Sunday Night Football as the New York Jets and Pittsburgh Steelers face off.
New York has started the season just 2-4 and made the midweek trade to add Davante Adams and reunite him with Aaron Rodgers. New York still holds playoff aspirations and cannot afford to keep dropping games. This also comes just about a week after the decision to fire head coach Robert Saleh. The Jets also finally reached an agreement with edge rusher Haason Reddick after he held out the first six weeks of the season. While their run defense and offensive line have been their biggest issues so far, all hands are now on deck for the Jets.
Pittsburgh elected to make a quarterback change this week and Russell Wilson will be starting the game under center. Mike Tomlin has kept things under wraps as much as possible, but the expectation is that both Wilson and Justin Fields could play a role in this game. The Steelers are 4-2 so far this season and hope to remain in the playoff hunt. This will be a key game for both teams.
The Jets enter the matchup as two-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Steelers are +120 on the moneyline while the game total is 39 points. Here are four player props I like for the primetime thriller.
Allen Lazard Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-115 Odds)
While there has been plenty of buzz about what Davante Adams could bring to this Jets offense, don’t let Aaron Rodgers’ other former Packers wide receiver get lost in the shuffle. So far this season, Lazard has tallied 26 receptions for 354 yards and five touchdowns. He is tied with Breece Hall for second on the team in receptions, ranks second in receiving yards and leads the team in touchdowns. These five touchdowns are also tied for the most receiving touchdowns across the entire NFL.
Lazard has tallied at least two receptions in every game and has only been held below this 27.5 receiving yard number in one game this season. Overall he is averaging 59.0 yards per game this season.
While the line is giving respect to the Steelers’ 13th-ranked passing defense and is braced for the impact that Adams will make, there is still room for Lazard to have his opportunities. Expect this to be an overreaction by the odds and for Lazard to still receive the necessary targets thrown in his direction to reach this total. Averaging 13.6 yards per reception this season, it should not take Lazard more than two receptions to reach this low total.
George Pickens Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-115 Odds)
It is still not quite clear exactly where George Pickens ranks among the hierarchy of wide receivers, largely due to the unstable quarterback play he has been paired with. So far this season he has tallied 26 receptions for 363 yards but has yet to make it in the end zone. He has tallied at least two catches in every game and has produced an average of 60.5 receiving yards per game. Pickens leads the team in targets, receptions and receiving yards.
It will be interesting to see how the quarterback change will impact Pickens, but in theory, there should be more opportunity for him with Russell Wilson at quarterback. Regardless of who is throwing him the ball, Pickens is a level of talent you can trust. Looking back at last season in which Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph and Mitch Trubisky combined for the quarterback production, Pickens still eclipsed 52.5 receiving yards in eight games. Regardless of your feelings about the Wilson vs. Fields quarterback competition, both should be looked at as upgrades from last year.
The Jets have had success defending the pass this season, but there is no tape on what to expect from the Steelers’ Wilson-led offense. Pickens also had over 100 yards receiving in his lone other matchup with the Jets. Expect a more pass-oriented approach to the offense and for Pickens to clear 52.5 receiving yards.
Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+110 Odds)
Aaron Rodgers is not what he once was, but you still could do much worse at the quarterback position when looking around the landscape of the NFL. The four-time MVP has thrown for two touchdowns in four of the six games this season. He has thrown for nine touchdowns this season and has attempted 30+ passing attempts in all but one game.
While New York must improve its running game moving forward, expect this to be a work in progress. Currently, it ranks 27th in rushing attempts, 27th in rushing touchdowns and 30th in rushing yards across the NFL. The Jets have scored just three rushing touchdowns compared to 10 in the air this season.
Pittsburgh has produced a strong defensive effort so far this season, allowing the second-fewest points while it is eighth in yards allowed. But after limiting opponents to just 26 points through the first three weeks, the Steelers have given up 60 points combined over the past three weeks. In addition to the football breakdown, you better believe Rodgers will be looking to set Davante Adams up with a touchdown in the game and get his Jets tenure off to the right start. Expect New York to be capable of scoring at least two touchdowns as a team and for Rodgers to look to capitalize through the air. Getting +110 odds is great value for this bet.
Pat Freiermuth Anytime TD (+330 Odds)
The Steelers have tallied just five total passing touchdowns so far this year. Pat Freiermuth is the only player on the roster to have more than one receiving touchdown. The 25-year-old has reached the end zone in two of the last three weeks and has a wide catch radius with his 6-foot-5 frame. While Freiermuth does not possess as much big-play ability as some of the other Steelers pass catchers, they have shown trust in him in big moments. Ten of his 22 receptions this season have resulted in first downs, in addition to the two touchdowns.
While we have not seen the offense with Wilson under center yet, the scheme run by offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is very tight-end dependent. Looking back on his time in charge of the Falcons, they once led the league with 34% of passes going to the tight end, with this number never dipping below 26.5%. Some of this had to do with the skill set of Kyle Pitts, but some of the principles have appeared in Pittsburgh.
While Wilson is not particularly known for his tight end usage, he did once throw 10 touchdowns to Jimmy Graham in a season. It takes just one chance thrown in Freiermuth’s direction for him to score six and cash this prop. The +330 odds are worth taking a chance based on where he ranks in the red zone pecking order and the upside that should be there in the passing game this week.
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All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is seanbarnard) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
