Through six weeks, George Pickens is the number 35 wide receiver in fantasy football, averaging 10.5 FPTS per game and racking up a total 63.3 FPTS on the season. That was with Justin Fields at quarterback, but Pickens said Russell Wilson will be under center in Week 7.
During his rookie season, Pickens posted a 41.6 Rec EPA, and that was with Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky throwing him the ball. Last season, that number dropped down to 23.1. So far this season, Pickens is posting a paltry 8.4 Rec EPA.
His target share is a massive 30.6%, which has translated to 44 targets. Tight end Pat Freiermuth is second on the team with 26 targets. Calvin Austin III, the second wide receiver on the depth chart, has garnered 17 targets on the season.
Justin Fields hasn’t been bad. This is actually the best season of his career, as he’s posting a 5.0 Total EPA. In Chicago, Fields never posted a number better than -42.2, and his lowest mark was -61.5. Gross. His 66.3% completion rate is a career-high this season, though, but he hasn’t been pushing the ball down the field as his average yards per attempt is only 7.5.
Despite the decent play, it seems like Russell Wilson will be taking over quarterbacking duties.
In his prime, Wilson was one of the best deep-ball throwers in the game, with his average yards per attempt in the 9.0 range. His Total EPA was over 25 for five years straight, topping 60 twice. But in his final year in Seattle, that number plummeted to -13.2. In two years with the Broncos, Russ’ Total EPA was below 60 in both seasons while his average yards per attempt was 7.5 in 2023.
However, Wilson did throw 26 touchdowns last season and completed 66.4% of his passes.
Fields has been a decent game manager and his dual-threat ability has caused issues for opposing defenses, but he is still not a developed passer. Wilson has fallen off over the years, but he is still a better processor of defenses than Fields, so he should elevate the play of Pickens. During Wilson’s final season in Denver, Courtland Sutton caught 59 of 90 targets for 772 yards and 10 touchdowns.
The Steelers’ problem for Week 7 is the matchup. The Jets boast one of the best pass defenses in the league and they pressure the quarterback at the fifth-highest rate. The unit is also fifth in Pass EPA.
The Steelers are 31st in pass rate, but Fields has still attempted at least 20 passes in every game, with two outings over 30. Pickens should continue seeing a high target share, and now, those will likely be of a higher quality than what he was getting from Fields.
To potentially make this spot even better, the Jets pass at the third-highest rate. Aaron Rodgers will likely throw a lot in this matchup because the Steelers’ run defense is so good, and he now has a new toy in Davante Adams. If New York can put up some points, that could get Pittsburgh out of their shell, which would mean more pass attempts for Wilson with the bulk going to Pickens.
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