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Let’s get into Pick6 fantasy football picks worth considering from Sunday’s NFL main slate, which features seven games.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
A.J. Brown
Receptions: 5.5
Brown was welcomed back with open arms after he was sidelined for three weeks (plus the bye), seeing nine targets in Week 6. He turned that into six catches and 116 yards. In his only other game this season, Brown turned 10 targets into 119 yards on five catches.
Going with Brown’s receiving yards (72.5) is a valid play. Five elite receivers have logged more than 72.5 receiving yards vs. the Giants. But four have also also managed to log at least six receptions, with a fifth coming up one short while only seeing six targets. The key thing with that group of four who logged at least six catches vs. the Giants: only one saw more than nine targets, which is the low that Brown has had in his two appearances.
The play: MORE
Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins
Anthony Richardson
Passing Yards: 199.5
It’s taken a couple weeks for Richardson to get back on the field after his Week 4 injury. While he claims to be fully good to go, that doesn’t mean everything is suddenly going to click for Indy.
In fact, switching back to him after a few weeks of Joe Flacco is going to be a significant shift. Now, it is a return to what Indianopolis wants to do, from a game plan standpoint, but the two quarterbacks could not be more different.
This mark is one that Richardson passed in his first two games, but not by much. He also only threw for 167 yards in his final full game before the injury, seeing his passing yardage output decrease each week.
On top of all that, Richardson is about to face a Miami defense that’s had two weeks to prepare for him. Even in games where the Dolphins have given up a fair share of points, only one opposing quarterback has logged at least 200 passing yards against them.
The play: LESS
Indianapolis Colts vs. Miami Dolphins
Michael Pittman Jr.
Receiving Yards: 50.5
Pittman was supposed to see a big boost with Flacco in for Richardson. He did log a pair of touchdowns, so there was that at least. He also went off for 113 receiving yards in the game that Richardson went down.
But in the two games that Indy prepared for Flacco being under center, Pittman didn’t crack 40 receiving yards. He also didn’t reach 40 receiving yards in any game that preceded his big Week 4.
The play: LESS
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Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Sam LaPorta
Receiving Yards: 43.5
LaPorta’s sophomore campaign has been a significant dip from his All-Pro rookie season. That said, when the ball has been thrown his way, the Detroit tight end has gotten the job done.
LaPorta only has 13 receptions this season, but on just 15 targets. Yet even with his low number of targets, this is a number that LaPorta has surpassed in three of five games.
Coincidentally, the Vikings have also allowed opposing tight ends to post at least 44 receiving yards in three of five games. Now, each of those tight ends did garner more targets than LaPorta has. But, what matters here is that tight ends can contribute against this Minnesota defense.
The play: MORE
Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers
Joe Mixon
Rushing Yards: 63.5
This number is obviously a steep dip from what Mixon has done when healthy. But that’s the question with him at all times, unfortunately. That said, there’s been no indication of a setback this week. So long as he’s healthy, Houston’s starting running back has continuously shown he’s capable of hitting the century mark on any given day.
While the last starting running back (James Conner) only logged 24 yards vs. Green Bay, he only had seven carries. That seems like more of a representative of that offense’s issues than what the Packers bring to the table. Because that Arizona backfield still combined for 75 yards on 21 carries. Not great, but enough to get the job done if the Cardinals had relied on their lead back.
More importantly, four of the six lead backs that the Packers have faced have logged at least 93 rushing yards.
The play: MORE
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Zack Moss
Rushing Yards: 30.5
The Browns have given up their share of rushing yards to opposing running backs. But, Cleveland has also frustrated a few. Most recently, Saquon Barkley only logged 47 rushing yards on 18 carries.
Still, that element is secondary to what’s happening with Cincy’s backfield. It’s shared, but there’s been a shift since Week 4, when Moss and Chase Brown logged 15 carries apiece. That was the third straight game Moss had at least 12 rushes. In the last two games, he hasn’t cracked double digits while averaging 2.47 yards per attempt. Meanwhile, Brown has logged double-digit rushes in each of the last three games and averaged 4.84 yards per attempt in the process.
If a Bengals running back is going to pop off this week, Brown is the one who’s more likely to do so.
The play: LESS
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
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