Week 7 of the NFL season will be kicked off by a prime-time matchup between a pair of rookie quarterbacks. Bo Nix will lead the 3-3 Denver Broncos into New Orleans as they face off with the 2-4 Saints in Spencer Rattler’s second career start.
The Saints got off to a hot start to the season winning their opening two games and producing the most points in the NFL, but have lost four consecutive games since this point. Derek Carr also suffered an oblique injury which will continue to keep him on the sideline and force Spencer Rattler to fill the shoes of the starting quarterback role sooner than expected.
The Denver Broncos enter with a 3-3 record on the season and have won three of their last four. They have found their identity as a defensive-oriented team and rank fourth in the NFL in both points and yards allowed. While Bo Nix will continue to play through the rookie growing pains, he has already shown some notable progress and will look to build off this in the Thursday Night matchup.
The Broncos enter this matchup as 3-point favorites and are currently -142 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Saints are listed as +120 underdogs on the moneyline, while the over/under for the game sits at 37 points.
We have plenty of articles on the site for the game outlook, DFS and Pick6 breakdowns, so here’s a look at some of the most intriguing player props ahead of Thursday night’s matchup.
Alvin Kamara Over 108.5 Rushing and Receiving Yards (-115)
Alvin Kamara burst onto the scene in the 2024 season recording 119 yards from scrimmage in each of the first four games and producing six touchdowns during this time. He has cooled down slightly since this point and is coming off just 64 yards from scrimmage last week, which marks his lowest total of the season.
The Saints will need Kamara to return to form, especially based on the number of injuries impacting the team. New Orleans is set to be without both their top pass-catchers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed and will need to generate offense somehow. This is especially a concern considering how impressive the Broncos defense has looked.
While Denver has had success as a team this season, their rushing defense is the biggest area opponents can exploit. The Broncos have given up 115 or more rushing yards in four of the six weeks and Kamara will be the most talented running back they have faced thus far. With Kamara being such an important part of the Saints’ offense already and the injuries to other notable players, expect him to see an uptick in opportunities. Expect him to tally over his average of 22 touches per game and convert this into at least 109 total yards in the process. Given the rookie quarterback and lack of wide receivers, don’t be surprised if Kamara is more heavily utilized in the passing attack. The 29-year-old is the most important player in their offense and will prove this in the matchup.
Spencer Rattler Over 0.5 Interceptions (-145)
There very well could be a bright future ahead for Spencer Rattler, but this is a difficult spot for the rookie. The fifth-round rookie is set to receive his second career start in primetime, on short rest, and is facing one of the better defenses in the league.
Rattler showed some signs of life in his debut completing 55% of his passes for 243 yards, one touchdown, and a pair of interceptions against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay ranks 26th in the NFL in yards allowed and 19th in points allowed. The matchup with the Broncos will mark an uptick in defensive ability that Rattler will need to rise to the challenge. Turnovers are a typical problem that plague young quarterbacks and this is the case with Rattler. He also had some issues in college which included leading the SEC in interceptions in 2022 during his time at South Carolina.
Expect Rattler to show some flashes in this matchup but for him to be unable to make it through without throwing an interception. Sean Payton and Vance Joseph will likely turn up the heat and bring the blitz on the young quarterback. It takes just one bad throw for the interception to occur and believe the Broncos will be ready to punish him.
Bo Nix Over 217.5 Passing and Rushing Yards (-120)
The growth and development of Bo Nix is the biggest storyline in Denver as it impacts both their short and long-term outlook. The Auburn and Oregon product has already taken some notable strides forward in his development. Nix was held without a touchdown and threw four interceptions through the first three weeks of the season. Since this point, he has tallied five touchdowns and just one interception while making more of an impact with his legs. Nix is also coming off a career-best 61 rushing yards just last week.
Overall Nix is averaging 180.3 passing yards per game which is heavily weighed down by the Week 4 matchup with the Jets when he was limited to just 60 passing yards. Even still he has thrown for 206 or more yards in four of the six games and has rushed for an average of 30 yards per game. The Saints’ defense has struggled this year and currently ranks 23rd in scoring and dead last in yards allowed. They also are 29th in passing yards given up thus far this season.
This is a perfect opportunity for Bo Nix to make the most of the primetime lights and produce his best performance thus far in the NFL. While I also like the over of his passing yards at 183.5, Nix has rushed the ball at least four times in every game. Roll with the combined passing and rushing total to give a little more diversity in how he gets the job done in what should be a strong performance.
Juwan Johnson Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
As Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed recover from their respective injuries, someone has to catch passes for the Saints. Through the opening six weeks, this receiving duo has produced 37.7% of all receptions and 50.4% of the team’s yardage through the air. It is impossible to fully replicate the level of talent the two pass catchers have, but the Saints will have to rely on the next man to step up.
Enter Juwan Johnson who is in his third season with the Saints and fifth in the NFL. So far this year the 28-year-old has tallied 12 receptions on 14 targets for 118 yards and a touchdown. He is coming off his best performance of the year as Johnson tallied 48 yards through the air. He also has tallied 26 or more yards three times already this season. Johnson has logged 77% of snaps or greater in the past two weeks and this should only be expected to increase based on the injuries.
Take advantage of this low bar for a total and expect Johnson to be the beneficiary of the massive hole that is left in the Saints’ offense. If you have a strong belief in the Oregon and Penn State product, there is value in playing around with his alternate lines such as 40+ receiving yards at +205 odds. For the sake of the article, we will lock in Johnson’s recording over 26.5 receiving yards in the Thursday Night matchup as he will receive a significant upgrade in his role.
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